Every batter on tonight's MLB slate with at least one career home run off the starting pitcher they're facing. Sorted by HR count, then by BANG/PA in the head-to-head. Regular season only. Recent HRs (this season or last) are the most predictive signal; older HRs are still shown but with a narrower lift.
Looking for matchup-quality rankings instead of HR history? Today's batter vs pitcher BANG rankings scores every matchup on tonight's slate by combined Statcast contact quality.
| Batter | Team | Matchup | vs Pitcher | HR vs | PA vs | Last HR | AVG vs | OPS vs | BANG vs | HR Odds | Weather |
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You can find batter vs pitcher stats today on a dozen fantasy sites. Most of them dump every column they can think of into a single grid: AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, hot/cold splits, you name it. That’s fine if you’re setting a DFS lineup. But if you’re looking to place home run bets, the information you want is home runs.
So we built a dedicated page for it. Career HRs off tonight’s starter sort to the top by default; AVG, OPS, and our Statcast BANG metric are still on the row if you want them, but the lead is HR history. That’s the stat that actually moves the needle on a home run prop, and it’s the one the other sites bury.
Click any pitcher row and the lineup expands. Career HRs sort to the top so you can see at a glance which hitters on tonight’s slate have taken this guy out of the park before. The handedness column tells you the platoon read; sort with the platoon toggle on if you only want platoon-favored matchups.
Sample depth and recency are the next two things to watch. Two HRs in 5 PA is louder than two HRs in 30 PA, but both are meaningful. A single HR in 18 PA gets weaker the further back you have to go to find it. That’s why the Last HR column is there: a HR off this starter last August is a different signal than one from his rookie year. Our internal weighting treats recent HRs as roughly 3.5x more predictive than HRs from 5+ years ago, and the Last HR sort lets you eyeball that for yourself.
Ballpark and weather aren’t on this page, but they matter as much as the BvP history in absolute terms. We bake park and live conditions into the HR model, which adds ballpark factors and the wind/temp adjustment to a per-PA HR rate and edge against the current market. Use both views together when you’re shopping HR props.
For the broader contact-quality view across every batter on the slate (not just guys with prior HR history off the starter), see Today’s BANG matchups.
Most BvP samples are too small to read as a batting average and have it mean much. A hitter going 2-for-7 with a single off a starter tells you almost nothing. That’s six unproductive at-bats and one bloop hit dressed up as a .286 line. The reason competitor cross-tab tables look so noisy is they’re treating that 7-PA line the same as a 70-PA line.
Career HRs hold up better. Going deep takes everything lining up at once, and when a hitter has done that to a specific pitcher even once in a reasonable sample of PAs, the matchup carries weight. A single HR in 4 PAs is a stronger signal than a single HR in 30. And recency matters: a HR off this starter in the last year or two means more than one from five seasons ago, when both the hitter and the pitcher were probably different players.
What we’d push back on is the instinct to wave off any single-HR line as noise. It can be a real signal depending on the PA count and how recent it is. Use the HR count, the PA count, and the Last HR year together and you’ll get a much sharper read than treating any single column in isolation.
MLB Statcast, refreshed every few hours on game days. Lineup data pulls from the MLB feed once teams post their starters; if a manager swaps a lefty in late, the page picks it up by the next refresh tick.
Together. A single HR in 4 PAs from last season is a meaningful signal. The same single HR in 30 PAs from 2017 is mostly historical curiosity. The HR column tells you what happened; the PA column and the Last HR column tell you how seriously to take it.
Four times daily on the same tick the rest of the site runs on: 9 AM, 11 AM, 2 PM, and 5 PM ET. Late lineup changes (LHB scratched, fill-in starter announced) show up within a few hours of the team’s announcement.
This page filters on actual career HR history against tonight’s specific starter. The BANG matchups page ranks every hitter on projected contact quality, regardless of whether they’ve ever faced the pitcher. Use this one when prior HR history is the angle. Use BANG when it isn’t.