HeatRadar is an independent MLB analytics site built around one question: which players are actually about to leave the yard tonight?
The answer comes from a stat called BANG. Every batted ball gets scored 0–100 based on its exit velocity, launch angle, and hit distance, calibrated against historical home-run outcomes. Averaged per plate appearance, an elite hitter sits at 12+. League average is around 7. The math is open in the FAQ on every page.
Three buckets:
Everything updates daily after the previous night’s games finalize in Statcast, usually around 5am ET.
We publish our own results. The HR picks tracker on the model page has graded every pick since launch: wins, losses, units staked, running ROI. Whatever the model has actually done is what you see, including the down stretches.
The fantasy projection page does the same. Rolling AB, hit, strikeout, and earned-run bias across thousands of player-games gets shown right in the page footer. If we’re running half an at-bat high on hitters, the page tells you so. Most projection sites don’t publish their bias numbers. We do, because the only way to trust a projection is to see how the last thousand of them did.
HeatRadar is a one-person operation. It’s built and maintained by Jeromey Rome (@jeromeyr0me), a former sports journalist turned software engineer and serious +EV bettor who started running personal HR pick calculations in 2024 and decided the math deserved a real site. The BANG model has been backtested across 240,000+ MLB batter-games. The implementation is hand-coded, from the Statcast ingestion pipeline to the live odds shopping to the weather multipliers.
That keeps the site small but also keeps it honest. There’s no team of writers, no analyst panel, no model committee, no advertiser pressure to push extra picks on a quiet slate. The math says what it says, and on the days it says nothing, the picks page just shows fewer picks.
If you use this site for betting, bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. The National Problem Gambling Helpline is 1-800-522-4700. See the responsible gambling page for more.
contact@heatradar.app for press, partnerships, methodology questions, and bug reports.