Yesterday went 1-3, but it was a profitable 1-3. Jac Caglianone went deep at +800 and dragged the day to +5 units, which is the math of long-odds HR betting in miniature: one hit on a slate where the lines pay this much can flip a losing record into a winning P&L. We were on a horrific slide in the days before that, but this model has been historically streaky, so let’s hope this is the start of a new one.
Friday is a relatively slate, with nine picks on the board. Joe Mack at +1200 sits at the top of the price ladder, then Travis Bazzana at +900, Lane Thomas at +750, and Christian Walker anchoring the short end at +350. Three of the four are riding a fresh HR; Walker is the matchup play. The picks below are sortable on the home run model if you want to see the full edge math, and as always, we will likely have a few more picks come on the board as lineups firm up and weather settles for night games.
Best home run bets today
Picks below all cleared our filters at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Fanatics, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
Joe Mack (MIA): +1200
Mack put a 103.5 mph, 401-foot shot off Tanner Banks on Wednesday, and that swing is what we’re paying for at +1200. Tonight he draws Landen Roupp, a RHP who has been miserly against lefties this year: just 2 HRs allowed to LHB in 178 PA (1.1%). That suppression rate is real, and Mack’s own LHB-vs-RHP line is thin too (2 HRs in 84 PA, basically one every 42). So the bat side isn’t doing the heavy lifting here. The number does. +1200 is a generous price for a guy carrying one loud recent swing into a stingy matchup; one barrel and the math takes care of itself.
Travis Bazzana (CLE): +900
Bazzana left the yard yesterday off Grant Anderson, a 106.2 mph, 398-foot shot that registered an 84.5 BANG on the play. That’s the kind of contact you don’t fake on a 24-hour turnaround. Tonight’s matchup is Tatsuya Imai, a righty who has surrendered 4 HRs to lefties in just 90 PAs this year (a 4.4% rate, which is steep against the platoon even at a small sample). Bazzana’s L7 BANG sits at 7.7 against his season 5.3; the bat is genuinely louder than usual right now. At +900 we’re paying for both the swing and the matchup, and that’s the kind of stack you take.
Lane Thomas (KC): +750
Thomas is the streakiest pick on the board: 3 HRs since Saturday, a 14.3% barrel rate over the last seven games, capped by a 100.8 mph 411-foot blast off Zack Littell on Wednesday. He gets Michael McGreevy tonight, a RHP who has been hittable against RHB (4 HRs allowed in 115 PA, a 3.5% rate). The park works against us a touch (Kauffman plays slightly pitcher-friendly at 0.90 for righties), but the bat is doing more than enough work to absorb a small park penalty. Three homers in a week is exactly the recency signal we lean on. +750 is fair.
Christian Walker (HOU): +350
Walker is the shortest line on our board today, which means we’re not telling a longshot story. He has 14 HRs against RHP in 240 PA this year, roughly one every 17 trips, and that’s the actual reason we are here. Tonight he gets Tanner Bibee, who has given up HRs to right-handed bats at a 3.2% clip this year (5 in 154 PA). There is also a thin BvP file: 1 HR in 9 career PAs vs Bibee, not a lot but the right shape. The math gets there at +350 on the matchup alone. The BvP receipt is the kicker.
More best bets today:
Sterlin Thompson (COL): +750. Two homers in the last three days, capped by a 102.6 mph, 406-foot blast on Tuesday with two barrels in the game. The bat is hot and Coors is Coors (park factor 1.25 for lefties, biggest weather-and-park stack of the day). +750 with the wind helping is the easiest sell on the board.
Colt Emerson (SEA): +1000. Two HRs in the last seven days, with a 106.4 mph swing on his ledger from Wednesday. The matchup is right-on-right against a LHP, which isn’t ideal, but the edge here (+331 at commit) is one of the biggest on the slate. The model’s seen enough to bet at this number.
Rodolfo Duran (SD): +900. Back for the third straight day. Two homers since Saturday, BANG/PA of 8.1 (above average contact quality), and Globe Life Field plays a tick hitter-friendly tonight. We have been on him at +1050 and +850 already this week; +900 with the platoon edge against a RHP is right in our wheelhouse.
Brooks Lee (MIN): +950. Lee has 12 HRs against RHP in 283 PA this year and just put a 104.3 mph, 365-foot barrel on the board Wednesday. Tonight’s matchup at Chase Field gives him a tick of park help. The edge here is +298 and the bat keeps showing up.
Owen Caissie (MIA): +900. Caissie homered on Wednesday and his most recent batted ball was a 99.9 mph, 406-foot near-miss. He has 7 HRs in 198 PA against RHP this year. The matchup is tougher than the recent picks above (LoanDepot Park is slightly pitcher-friendly, calm weather), but +900 still leaves room when the contact has been this loud.
Batters with multiple home runs against starter today:
vs Erick Fedde (CWS)
- Kerry Carpenter (DET): 2 HR / 5 PA
vs Ranger Suarez (BOS)
- Mitch Garver (SEA): 2 HR / 6 PA
vs José Soriano (LAA)
- Shea Langeliers (ATH): 2 HR / 15 PA
- Lawrence Butler (ATH): 2 HR / 19 PA
vs Jeffrey Springs (ATH)
- Jo Adell (LAA): 2 HR / 9 PA
vs Martín Pérez (ATL)
- Gary Sánchez (MIL): 2 HR / 25 PA
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck!