Welcome to HeatRadar’s blog! This will be the first of (hopefully) daily posts giving you our favorite home run bets today, as long as this mighty one-man operation can handle it. Our bets are based on our rapidly evolving home run model that is powered by BANG Factor, our stat here at HeatRadar that measures Statcast quality of contact (a combination of exit velocity, launch angle and distance) per plate appearance - an important distinction. Guys who walk and strike out a lot may have big bats, but if they spend two of their four plate appearances not making any contact, that doesn’t help you as a HR bettor.
Our model has gotten off to a rip-roaring start since we launched HeatRadar on May 12; we’re up 18 units on pure home run bets, and another 9.7 units on fades (more on that later). We’ve gone into a slight downturn over the last couple days however, with no hits since Sunday. We’ve only had 9 bets pass all of our model’s strict gates in that time; we need a +175 edge against the book, a minimum number of plate appearances, good-enough weather, and a player to have a BANG score over 7 to qualify. So, this slight downturn is in the normal range of variance, and we’re due for some winners.
All of these blogs will be written by the site’s founder and daddy Jeromey Rome, aka El Jerome, aka the International Man of Mystery. You can follow me on Twitter as I tweet about movies, the Chicago Bears and a variety of grievances. You can, and should, follow HeatRadar’s official Twitter account as well.
Best home run bets today
Without further ado, here are the two picks for today. Both cleared our +175 edge filter at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, HardRock and a few other sportsbooks, all of which were tagged on the morning model run. You may find better lines on DraftKings or FanDuel.
Yandy Diaz (Tampa Bay Rays): +750
Diaz vs the Yankees at Yankee Stadium gets the biggest single edge on the board tonight at +279. The model thinks fair odds are around +471. The +750 price available at HardRock is meaningfully overpriced.
A few things stack up for Diaz:
- BANG of 13.4 in the last seven days: Diaz’s season-long number is a middling 7.9 (not great, not terrible) but he’s been bashing the ball recently; over the last 7 games he’s ninth among qualified batters in BANG.
- Two homers in three games: That hard contact has translated to real results; two home runs in his last three games and four barrels (two others were doubles, one was a near home run).
- History vs. Gerrit Cole: Diaz has a ton of plate appearances (48) vs. Cole, the Yankees ace who is returning from Tommy John surgery tonight, and has hit two homers against him with a career 9.1 BANG.
The weather adjustment is a slight headwind (0.943) which would normally fail our hard wx<0.99 filter, but the BvP override applied because Diaz’s history vs. Cole is strong enough to compensate. Cole may not go deep into the game, but Yandy should get at least 1-2 ABs against - and we can’t ignore how hot he is for the rest of the game.
Gavin Sheets (San Diego Padres): +750
Sheets has been quietly mashing for the Padres, and tonight’s home matchup against the Athletics shows a +175 model edge - exactly the number we need.
Sheets’ season-long BANG is at 8.5, but like Diaz, his number in his last 7 games has gone up to 12.3. He’s hot, and he has four home runs in his last eight games.
Why is the number so long, then? Sheets is a lefty, and faces a lefty in Jeffrey Springs tonight. It’s true that Sheets has no homers against lefties this season so far; but Springs actually gives up harder contact to lefties vs righties. Petco is a slight headwind park (0.92 park factor for LHB), but the pitcher matchup adjustment against Springs is positive enough (1.048) to offset.
Maybe Sheets sits with the lefty-lefty matchup, in which case you’d get your money back. For us, we’d make the bet.
Best home run fades today
At HeatRadar, we love betting the over on home runs - but we arguably love betting the under even more. Every gambler knows that overs are more fun than unders, but with that enthusiasm comes a “tax” that sportsbooks bake in, especially on home runs.
Very few sportsbooks offer the under for home runs, and for good reason - it’s more profitable. The under is basically the house, and the house always wins. Luckily, thanks to peer-to-peer sportsbooks like Novig and ProphetX, we now have the ability to place under bets on anything, because there is no house.
Any bettor who has exposure to YES home run should balance their portfolio with a nice variety of NO sides. Essentially, you can play the “house,” and run a de-facto sportsbook of your own betting against guys you want to fade. Profit builds much more slowly (most bets are between -500 and -700), but patience can yield much more consistent and less volatile growth. Our model is up 9.7 units since launch, even as a winning bet will usually yield around 0.2 of a unit.
Four Tier 1 fades on the board tonight, meaning the YES price is overpriced enough that the NO side has positive expected value on a no-vig book like ProphetX or Novig. Bigger negative edge means the model is more confident the YES price is wrong. There are many more Tier 2 and Tier 3 fades available at the model.
Kevin McGonigle (Detroit Tigers): fade at +700
McGonigle is the Tigers’ top prospect, but he has yet to show much power at the big league level. Still, the market is pricing him like a power threat with a 12.5% implied YES probability. Our model has him at 7.6%, a -516 edge against the YES side.
Here are the factors going against McGonigle:
- BANG of 6.1, below league average
- Only 2 HRs in 215 PA (the power hasn’t translated yet)
- A decent matchup against Chris Bassitt (4.8 BANG against)
- Weather is supposed to be cold and possibly rainy
Tonight is not the night the market gets McGonigle right.
Riley Greene (Detroit Tigers): fade at +525
Same Tigers game, so same opposing pitcher, same wind, same park. Greene is the more credible hitter (BANG 7.2, 4 HRs in 211 PA) but +525 is still meaningfully too short. The model has him at 10.6% vs the market’s 16.0%, a -318 edge.
The market knows Greene’s a real power threat. The model knows the matchup specifics (opposing pitcher suppressing HRs, headwind in his face) make tonight a low-probability HR night for him specifically.
Ryan McMahon (New York Yankees): fade at +600
McMahon was traded from Colorado to the Yankees last season, but the market is still partly pricing him like the Coors version of himself. His season-long BANG sits at 5.8, well below average, and he doesn’t have the thin Denver air to give his fly balls any extra juice.
He does have the short porch in right field of Yankee Stadium, which is a benefit for lefties, but he also faces a tough pitcher in Nick Martinez (1.71 ERA). He’s also not much meaningully better against righties than lefties this season - 6.1 BANG against righties (still below average) compared to 5.3 against lefties.
The Yankee Stadium boost helps a LHB pull hitter, but McMahon’s contact quality hasn’t been there this season - only 4 homers in 140 PAs.
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BANG matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG. A few standouts:
- Ketel Marte (AZ) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: combined BANG 11.2 (Marte 9.4, Sugano allowing 13.0). The Diamondbacks have multiple top-tier matchups against this arm, with Corbin Carroll showing up right behind Marte on the list.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) vs Miles Mikolas: combined 10.8. ATL’s full middle of the order grades well against tonight’s starter; Matt Olson also cracks the top 10 despite a relative “slump.”
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs Jameson Taillon: combined 10.6. The HOU @ CHC game has multiple favorable matchups, despite some heavy winds blowing in from center field. His teammate Christian Walker was on the best bet board before we pulled him on live weather.
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck!