We’re coming off an enormous day on Saturday where we went 3 for 5, cashing an outrageous +21 units thanks to homers from Spencer Horwitz, Josh Jung and Jeremy Pena, all who had odds of +700 or better. Yesterday (Sunday), we had no best bets, so we’re still basking in the glow of our huge day. (Though, that didn’t stop me from losing a bunch of home run bets while in attendance at Cubs vs. Cardinals in St. Louis, including Ivan Herrera, who was the victim of an extremely questionable foul ball call at the pole. Whatever.)
Today we’ve got two picks on a smaller slate of ball games; only nine games today, but the HR model is showing best bet value on one play from Tigers vs. Rays (the first game on the slate) and Mets vs. Mariners (the last). Should have a full-evening sweat if you tail our picks. Let’s stay hot.
Best home run bets today
Picks below all cleared our +175 edge filter at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Pinnacle, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
J.P. Crawford (SEA): +900
Model edge of +329 on the YES side tonight. We have fair odds for Crawford around +571; the +900 you’re seeing at theScore Bet is a little off from the rest of the market, but anything +750 and above (which is readily available) is a bet for us.
His season BANG/PA is 5.7 (below league average), but he’s had a meaningful power uptick over the last seven days, with a BANG of 9.3 over that span (a 63% increase on his season average). That’s buoyed by two homers on the 29th against Zac Gallen and the D-Backs, but homers tend to come in bunches. Plus, he’s still managed 9 homers on the season, so he’s not exactly a power vacuum.
He’s also hit righties significantly better than lefties, with eight of his nine homers coming against northpaws. (Is that a word?) And he faces a righty tonight in Austin Warren - who will act as an opener and probably only get one trip through the lineup, but Crawford usually hits leadoff for Seattle, so we can expect at least one matchup.
If you can get him for +900 on a book like Novig or ProphetX (assuming you don’t have theScore), do that - but otherwise, +750 is fair.
Dillon Dingler (DET): +750
We didn’t get a ding-dong from Dingler the last time we picked him, but hopefully tonight is the night. We have fair odds for Dingler around +558; the +750 you’re seeing at the books is enough to clear our best bet filter.
His season BANG/PA is 8.4 (above average). He’s at 11 HRs in 216 PA on the season, roughly one every 19 plate appearances. His L15 BANG has cooled (-6% vs season), but the season-long contact quality still pencils out.
Like Crawford, Dingler hits the ball much harder against righties than lefties despite being a righty himself (9.0 BANG against righties vs 7.0 vs lefties, and 8 of his 11 homers). He faces a righty tonight in Griffin Jax, who has had a good season, but not enough to put a hard hitter like Dingler into the same home run odds as guys like Cedric Mullins (and +200 longer than Riley Greene, who hasn’t homered since April 29).
We need +175 from the book for a player to be a best bet - Dingler gives us +192. Marginal, but the numbers say take it.
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BvP matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG. A few standouts:
- Jordan Walker (STL) vs Jacob deGrom: combined BANG 9.8 (Walker 10.3, deGrom allowing 9.2).
- Mike Trout (LAA) vs Kyle Freeland: combined BANG 9.2 (Trout 10.0, Freeland allowing 8.5).
- Brandon Nimmo (TEX) vs Michael McGreevy: combined BANG 9.1 (Nimmo 9.2, McGreevy allowing 9.0).
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Batters with multiple home runs against starter today:
None.
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck!