It’s a light slate Monday, and we only have 3 HR picks on the board this morning. This is coming off a weekend where we had a ton of picks, including yesterday, where we went 2-13 at flat 1u, +0.50u. Cedric Mullins, who we are on again tonight, had the dreaded “near home run” that would have been an actual home run in 27 of 30 MLB parks - but not at LoanDepot Park. Sigh.
Anyway, let’s stop living in the past and take a look at today’s best bets. Our home run model may surface more throughout the day, so be sure to keep checking.
We’re back down under plus 20 units, but that’s still deeply positive and it would only take one or two hits to get us back closer to 30. Let’s get into it.
Best home run bets today
Picks below all cleared our +175 edge filter at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Pinnacle, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
Cedric Mullins (TB): +1050
We already talked about how Mullins came this close to a home run yesterday, but it was not out of nowhere; he’s homered twice since June began, with a 102.5 mph, 397-foot shot (BANG of 73.6 on the play) on the 5th off Tyler Phillips, and a 399-foot shot off Troy Melton (80.4 BANG). The contact quality is moving the right direction into tonight’s matchup with Connelly Early: his L7 BANG of 10.2 is 131% above above his season 4.4.
Why is he above 10/1, then? Probably because he’s facing a lefty in Connelly Early, his by-far weaker platoon (Mullins is a switch hitter, but hits righties way harder). Mullins has no homers vs. lefties and may not even be in the lineup. But Early, on the other hand, is giving up plenty of hard contact against lefties, with a bang of 7.9 against his same hand and 4 HRs in 70 plate appearances.
The park leans slightly pitcher-friendly (0.94), but the rest of the profile is loud enough to absorb it.
Hot bats come in clumps, and Mullins will likely get at least one at-bat against a different pitcher anyway. Take the price while it’s here.
Jonathan Aranda (TB): +750
Back to Connelly Early for another lefty. Early has been one of the more hittable left-handed starters in the league this year. As we mentioned, he’s given up 4 HRs to lefties in 70 PAs this year, a 5.7% rate that’s well above where you want a starter sitting. Aranda is just the cheapest way to get on the Early-is-bad side of the action at +750.
Aranda has cooled off after a scorching run about a week ago, but we like the price enough to dive in.
Alec Bohm (PHI): +650
The headline on Bohm tonight is the head-to-head with Patrick Corbin. He’s faced him 30 times in his career and gone deep 2 times, one HR every 15 PA. Last time these two met was in 2024, but it’s still one of the cleaner BvP signals on the entire board tonight.
On the platoon side: Bohm has hit 4 of his HRs against LHP this year (4 in 76 PA, one every 19). On the other side, Corbin has allowed 6 HR to RHB in 183 PA this year (3.3%).
If you don’t trust BvP, you fade. We trust it.
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BvP matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG. A few standouts:
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs Grayson Rodriguez: combined BANG 9.5 (Alvarez 12.3, Rodriguez allowing 6.7).
- Casey Schmitt (SF) vs Miles Mikolas: combined BANG 9.1 (Schmitt 9.3, Mikolas allowing 8.8).
- Aaron Judge (NYY) vs Gavin Williams: combined BANG 9.0 (Judge 10.7, Williams allowing 7.3).
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Batters with multiple home runs against starter today:
vs Spencer Arrighetti (HOU)
- Zach Neto (LAA): 2 HR / 6 PA
vs Patrick Corbin (TOR)
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI): 2 HR / 28 PA
- J.T. Realmuto (PHI): 2 HR / 45 PA
- Alec Bohm (PHI): 2 HR / 30 PA
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck!