We rolled out a few new features on HeatRadar yesterday, which resulted in no blog and picks being committed late. It was probably for the best, since our picks went 0-for-9. First full fade in a while.
Bounce-back starts today, and it’s Dinger Tuesday, so be sure to grab whatever boosts are still left for this once-glorious day. Remember, never bet parlays unless you get a boost. And if you can use the boost on a solo dinger ticket, that’s usually the right call.
Best home run bets today
Picks below all cleared our filters at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Pinnacle, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
Donovan Walton (LAA): +1100
Walton just left the yard yesterday: 100.8 off the bat, 401 feet, off Paul Sewald. That’s the kind of swing you don’t forget about overnight, especially when tonight’s draw is Merrill Kelly, who has a 10.9 BANG-against and has coughed up 10 HRs to lefties in 172 PA this year (5.8%). The park does us a small favor too at a 1.07 hitter-friendly mark for lefties.
Walton only has 52 plate appearances against righties this season so his platoon line reads thin, but Kelly’s right arm is the soft side of the platoon for the lefty-swinging Walton. The price is what makes the math work; +1100 is a generous number for a guy carrying real hard contact into a soft matchup.
Rodolfo Duran (SD): +1050
Two homers since Saturday, including a 106.3 mph, 432-foot bomb off Rico Garcia (BANG of 94.7 on that one). Barrel rate over the last seven games sits at 14.3%. The bat’s working. Andre Pallante is the matchup, and at this price the model thinks the books haven’t fully adjusted to Duran’s last week. Take the swing while it’s available at these odds.
Brooks Lee (MIN): +900
Lee tagged Ryne Stanek for a 100.2 mph shot Friday — real EV, real carry into tonight. He draws Kumar Rocker, a tougher arm on paper, with only 4 HRs allowed to LHB in 158 PA (2.5%). Lee’s been productive against righties this year (8 HRs in 183 PA), and at +900 we’re paying for the long shot, not a coin flip. The bat is swinging fine in recent games; the line isn’t reflecting that.
Ivan Herrera (STL): +900
Saturday’s blast off Justin Lawrence was a 103.6 mph, 403-foot bomb (BANG of 80.8). Michael King is the matchup, and yes, this is the same King we’re betting Burleson against (more on that in a second). King has allowed 4 HRs to RHB in 134 PA this year (3.0%), and Herrera has been quietly steady against right-handed pitching. Not a huge sample either way, but the price holds the math.
Alec Burleson (STL): +550
Stacking St. Louis hitters off Michael King is the play. Burleson has faced him 7 times and homered once — short BvP file but the right kind of result. Beyond that, Burleson has been crushing righties this year (12 HRs in 212 PA, about one every 17), and King has surrendered 6 HRs to lefties in 192 PA. Different sample than Herrera’s RHB matchup, similar pitcher exposure. If King gives up one tonight, there’s a real chance it’s to a Cardinal.
Luis Garcia Jr. (WSH): +525
Thin batter-vs-pitcher history, but effective: 1 HR in 5 career PAs against Michael Wacha. Either way, Wacha is a starter who gives lefties chances. He has allowed 6 HRs to LHB in 204 PA this year (2.9%), and Garcia Jr. has homered 7 times in 208 PA against righties. The +525 price is friendly for what the matchup looks like underneath.
Joc Pederson (TEX): +450
This one has more going for it than the price suggests. Pederson’s L7 BANG is 9.8 against a season number of 7.4; the bat is genuinely louder than usual right now. His BvP history with Zebby Matthews is short (1 for 3) but pointed in the right direction with a homer last September. And, Matthews has been homer-prone against lefties this year (4 HRs in 90 PA, a 4.4% rate that ranks badly). Bet the hot bat before the price closes.
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BvP matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG. A few standouts:
- Mike Trout (LAA) vs Merrill Kelly: combined BANG 10.2 (Trout 9.6, Kelly allowing 10.8).
- Michael Harris II (ATL) vs Adrian Houser: combined BANG 9.9 (Harris 11.5, Houser allowing 8.4).
- Matt Olson (ATL) vs Adrian Houser: combined BANG 9.8 (Olson 11.1, Houser allowing 8.4).
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Batters with multiple home runs against starter today:
vs Logan Gilbert (SEA)
- Leody Taveras (BAL): 2 HR / 21 PA
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck!