We’ve been on somewhat of a summer break from the blogs, which was the perfect time for the model to completely tank on us. We’re down 10 units, the first time we’ve been in the red since I’ve written a blog. Maybe it’s time to start again!
We have some theories as to what has been causing the decrease in pick quality; full disclosure, we want to wait until the sample size increases a bit before deploying the changes, and there’s a good chance we’re just on the wrong side of variance. Either way, we’re watching the results carefully.
All picks available with full analysis at the home run model.
Best home run bets today
Picks below all cleared our filters at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Pinnacle, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
Brandon Lowe (PIT): +600
Two home runs in three days, 107.4 mph off Chase Burns on Saturday and 104.5 off Bryce Miller two days before that. Lowe’s barrel rate over the last week sits at 22.7%, which is the kind of contact quality that makes you take notice regardless of matchup. The bat is genuinely live right now.
The matchup, though, asks for some discipline. Cristopher Sánchez throws left, and Lowe has managed only 4 home runs in 98 PA against southpaws this season. Sánchez himself has been nearly untouchable to lefties, surrendering just 1 HR in 112 PA on the year, and their five career meetings have produced nothing. That’s a real friction point against what the contact data is screaming.
At +600 with a +202 model edge, the price is doing a lot of work here. We’re paying for the hot contact to carry over into a genuinely difficult platoon spot, trusting that barrel rates near 23% create real HR equity even against the grain. It’s not a clean number. We’re running a small piece on the strength of the bat, not the matchup.
Victor Caratini (MIN): +650
Caratini crushed one 426 feet off Peter Lambert on the 29th, 107.0 off the bat, BANG 94.4 on the play. That’s not noise. His last 15 games show a BANG/PA of 8.3, and the barrel rate over the last seven sits at 14.3%, which is legitimate thump for a catcher in the middle of a real run.
Burrows has been leaky against left-handed bats all year, surrendering 13 home runs in 211 PA, one every 16 trips. Caratini has been a problem for righties himself, going deep five times in 159 PA, and he put one out the last time these two shared a field. The contact profile is trending heavy right as this matchup arrives.
At +650 with a plus-94 edge baked in, the number is still generous enough that we don’t need to squint. We like the bat, we like the pitcher, and we trust the price.
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY): +475
Four home runs in 14 career at-bats against Skubal. That’s not a fluke buried in a decade of cup-of-coffee PAs; it’s a pattern against one of the better lefties in the game, and it lands in our lap tonight at +475.
Goldschmidt has been a genuine problem for left-handed pitching all year, eight home runs in 99 PA against southpaws, and his last seven days are reinforcing the case: 11.8% barrel rate, BANG/PA of 8.0. Skubal limits damage to righties well enough on the season, six home runs in 175 PA, but Goldschmidt specifically has found the barrel against him at a rate that makes the matchup-level numbers feel conservative. The price reflects none of that history.
At +475 with a +92 edge baked in, the model is telling us the line is soft, and the underlying data agrees. We trust the bat.
Jake Burger (TEX): +525
Burger has gone deep twice in six career looks at Bibee, which is about as concentrated a receipt as you’ll find anywhere on tonight’s board. The last meeting was earlier this month. Bibee has been hittable to right-handed bats all year, surrendering six home runs in 176 PA, and Burger has been a genuine problem for righties in 2026: 10 HR in 262 PA, one every 26 at-bats, with an 11.8% barrel rate over his last seven games that tells you the swing is live right now.
The most recent home run came off Gausman on June 25th, 106.7 mph, 378 feet, BANG 59.1. That’s a real ball, not a cheapie. At +525 with an eighteen-point edge sitting behind it, we’re not looking for a reason to pass. We’re paying.
Bryce Harper (PHI): +340
Two home runs in three days, the more recent one off Braxton Ashcraft at 106.7 mph and 405 feet. Harper is locked in right now, 15.0% barrel rate over his last seven games and a L7 BANG of 11.4 that sits well above his season mark. Against righties this year he’s been relentless: 17 home runs in 213 plate appearances, one every 12.5. Bubba Chandler has given up 7 home runs to left-handed hitters in 177 PA this season, and the one time Harper faced him back in May, it left the yard.
+340 with this much contact quality pointing the same direction is a number we’re comfortable with. The edge is slim at +3, but the underlying profile is not. We trust the bat here.
Kody Clemens (MIN): +340
Clemens has gone deep twice in the last three days, the more recent a 104.5 mph shot off Ryan Feltner that traveled 399 feet, and his barrel rate over the last seven games sits at 14.3%. That’s a hitter who is squaring the ball with real authority right now. Against righties this season he’s been a genuine problem, putting up 11 HR in 223 PA, and Burrows has been equally permissive from the other side, surrendering 13 HR to left-handed hitters in 211 PA this year. The one career at-bat Clemens has against Burrows that ended with him rounding the bases is a small receipt, but it rhymes with everything else here.
+340 on a lefty bat that is this hot, against a righty who bleeds to the platoon, is a number we’re comfortable taking. We trust the contact, we trust the matchup. We’re on Clemens.
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BvP matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG. A few standouts:
- Michael Harris II (ATL) vs Matthew Liberatore: combined BANG 9.6 (Harris 11.1, Liberatore allowing 8.0).
- Matt Olson (ATL) vs Matthew Liberatore: combined BANG 9.2 (Olson 10.5, Liberatore allowing 8.0).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) vs Eury Pérez: combined BANG 9.2 (Goodman 10.0, Pérez allowing 8.3).
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Batters with multiple home runs against starter today:
vs Tarik Skubal (DET)
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY): 4 HR / 14 PA
vs Bryan Woo (SEA)
- Jo Adell (LAA): 3 HR / 12 PA
vs Joe Ryan (MIN)
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU): 3 HR / 19 PA
vs Tanner Bibee (CLE)
- Jake Burger (TEX): 2 HR / 6 PA
vs José Soriano (LAA)
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA): 2 HR / 17 PA
vs JP Sears (SD)
- Alex Bregman (CHC): 2 HR / 22 PA
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck!