Happy Friday. Late blog today so I’m not going to waste any time yapping (or writing) to get to the point here. You want home run bets; here they are!
Yesterday’s blog (June 11) went 0-3 at flat 1u, -3.00u ❌ on the writeups.
Best home run bets today
Picks below all cleared our +175 edge filter at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Pinnacle, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
Brice Turang (MIL): +650
Brice Turang has hit three home runs in his last five games. Were all of those games in either Las Vegas or Colorado, AKA the two hitter-friendliest stadiums by far? Yes. Yes they were. BUT, two of those three homers went over 440 feet; they were not barely-cleared-the-wall squeakers that would have been fly balls in San Francisco.
In Colorado, he hit a 444 ft, 105.5 mph blast against TJ Shook, and went deep again against Jeffrey Springs two days later for a 443-foot, 108.2 mph blast. The bat is loud right now in a way it usually isn’t; his L7 BANG of 7.8 is sitting a full point above his season number, and the barrel rate over those seven games is 9.1%.
Tonight’s matchup gives the lefty everything he wants. Andrew Painter is a rookie righty, and Turang has hit 9 of his 10 HRs this year against right-handers (one every 23 PA, basically every time he sees a starter); Painter has been giving them up to lefties at 6 HRs across 162 PA (3.7%). Brewers play at home in a slightly hitter-friendly park. Take +650 and don’t think too hard.
NOTE: This line has drifted to at least +700 at peer-to-peer books like Novig and ProphetX.
Ernie Clement (TOR): +1000
Best receipt on the board tonight: Clement homered off Ryan Weathers on May 18, the most recent time these two met. Add it to what Weathers has been doing to right-handed bats this year (11 HRs to RHB in 225 PA, a 4.9% rate that puts him among the most attackable lefties on the schedule), and the matchup is clean. Clement’s L7 BANG of 5.6 is also up from his season 4.4, which never hurts when you’re paying +1000. We trust the BvP and we trust the splits.
Alec Bohm (PHI): +1050
Different cohort entirely. Jacob Misiorowski sits at a 2.9 BANG-against this year (Ohtani-tier territory), and he’s allowed only 2 HRs to right-handed bats in 143 PA and 2 to lefties in 159. The model knows it’s tough, which is exactly why long odds end up on the board for this kind of arm.
What we like about Bohm specifically: he took Max Scherzer deep on Wednesday on a 101 mph swing, which says the bat is showing up in the right context. His L7 BANG (5.5) is roughly his season pace but the barrel rate over those games is 10%, and the L7 max EV of 108.3 says he’s putting real wood on the ball. +1050 against an elite pitcher is squarely where our long-shot ROI has historically lived. We’ll take it.
Curtis Mead (WSH): +650
Curtis Mead’s barrel rate over the last seven games is 14.3%. That’s the bat we’re paying for at +650. Two recent HRs on the ledger: 411 feet off Eduardo Rodriguez on June 6, and 399 feet off Reiver Sanmartin on Wednesday. Both at exit velocities north of 101 mph. The L7 max EV of 110.1 tells you the swing is fully extended.
Tonight is harder. Bryce Miller sits at a 3.6 BANG-against this year, the second elite pitcher on tonight’s slate, and he’s been particularly stingy against lefties (0 HRs in 50 PA). Mead is a righty, so the platoon angle isn’t there, but Miller has given up 2 HRs to RHB in 49 PA — small sample, not nothing. We’re paying for the bat in this matchup; +650 is the price that earns it.
Brooks Lee (MIN): +800
Brooks Lee at +800 isn’t a heat-check. His L7 BANG of 4.5 is barely off his season 4.2, the barrel rate over those games is 3.8%, and the most recent HR (June 9 off Troy Melton) was a wall-scraping 96.3 mph job that registered a BANG of 22 on the play. The bat is fine. It isn’t crushing.
So where’s the play? Two places. Kyle Leahy has been a soft RHP to left-handers this year (6 HRs allowed to LHB in 142 PA, 4.2%), and Lee profiles squarely at that matchup with 7 of his 10 HRs coming off right-handers. Second, Target Field is a coin-flip park and weather isn’t fighting him tonight. Long odds with the platoon edge in our pocket; that’s the bet.
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BvP matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG. A few standouts:
- Byron Buxton (MIN) vs Kyle Leahy: combined BANG 8.9 (Buxton 9.7, Leahy allowing 8.2).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs Luinder Avila: combined BANG 8.9 (Alvarez 12.1, Avila allowing 5.8).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) vs Nick Lodolo: combined BANG 8.8 (Marte 9.5, Lodolo allowing 8.0).
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Batters with multiple home runs against starter today:
vs Jack Flaherty (DET)
- Rhys Hoskins (CLE): 2 HR / 10 PA
- José Ramírez (CLE): 2 HR / 28 PA
vs Spencer Strider (ATL)
- Francisco Alvarez (NYM): 2 HR / 10 PA
vs Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
- Marcell Ozuna (PIT): 2 HR / 30 PA
vs Tanner Bibee (CLE)
- Matt Vierling (DET): 2 HR / 14 PA
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck!