A treading-water day for HeatRadar. Yesterday’s blog (June 10) went 1-7-1 at flat 1u, +3.00u 💵 on the writeups. We went exactly +/- 0 units yesterday from all of the picks, including the three that came after it was published (@HeatRadarMLB on Twitter/X posts every pick that comes available after the blog is published). Of course, Jazz Chisholm hit a “near home run” in the first game of the slate. Sigh.
Anyway, much smaller slate of picks today with less teams in action. We have day baseball today, so plenty of opportunities to cash before dinner. Without further ado, here are the best bets:
Best home run bets today
Three picks on the board this morning, all of them long-price spots we like for very different reasons. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Pinnacle, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
Owen Caissie (MIA): +750
Owen Caissie went deep off Ryne Nelson yesterday afternoon at loanDepot, a 110.2 mph shot that traveled 370 feet (BANG of 76.9 on the play). Tonight, same series, this time against Merrill Kelly (who has been a meatballer this year). We’re betting that the bat carries through the back end of the Arizona rotation.
There’s more to it than the receipt. Kelly’s been a sieve against left-handed bats this year; he’s allowed 10 HRs to LHB in 157 PA (6.4%), which puts him near the bottom of the league against the platoon. Caissie’s contact has been climbing in parallel; his L7 BANG of 8.5 is well above his season 6.5, and the 6 HRs he’s hit against righties this year work out to one every 25 PA. The market priced the lefty-versus-righty split going into the series. The bat is louder than that price right now.
At +750, we like it.
Liam Hicks (MIA): +850
Different angle altogether. The bat isn’t the story; Hicks’s L7 BANG of 3.1 is well off his season number of 5.0, and we’re not going to pretend otherwise. This is a pitcher pick on Kelly, the +850 way onto a soft right-handed matchup from the RHB side.
Kelly has been giving up homers to everyone this year. Lefties get the headline at 6.4%, but the right-handed splits aren’t far behind, and Hicks at +850 is the cheapest path to the Kelly-is-bad side from the RHB column. This is a long-price profile play with a real matchup behind it; you bet 1u, you wait, and if it cashes the math takes care of itself.
Brooks Lee (MIN): +700
Lee at +700 is more of a profile bet than a heat-check. He’s hit 7 HRs against right-handers in 169 PA this year (one every 24), which is real power-hitter territory; Keider Montero, who he’s facing, has been tougher than that — only 2 HRs allowed to RHB in 113 PA (1.8%). On the surface the matchup is muted.
So why bite? Two reasons. One: Lee took Troy Melton deep on Tuesday, and the BANG of 22.0 on that one tells you it wasn’t a moonshot, but the swing path is clearly intact and the wall-scraping HR still counts in this market. Two: Comerica plays a tick pitcher-friendly tonight, but the wind is adding about 6% to the HR multiplier, which is enough to bridge a borderline matchup. The price is fair; the bat fits.
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BvP matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG. A few standouts:
- Otto Lopez (MIA) vs Merrill Kelly: combined BANG 9.4 (Lopez 7.3, Kelly allowing 11.6).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) vs Ryan Feltner: combined BANG 9.2 (Crow-Armstrong 8.0, Feltner allowing 10.3).
- Ian Happ (CHC) vs Ryan Feltner: combined BANG 9.1 (Happ 7.8, Feltner allowing 10.3).
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Batters with multiple home runs against starter today:
vs Mitch Keller (PIT)
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 2 HR / 12 PA
vs Michael Wacha (KC)
- Joc Pederson (TEX): 2 HR / 25 PA
vs Kyle Bradish (BAL)
- Randy Arozarena (SEA): 2 HR / 19 PA
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck!