We had a nice Dinger Tuesday at HeatRadar. Yesterday’s blog (June 9) went 1-5 at flat 1u, +1.50u 💵 on the writeups (Andy Pages +650 cashed), but the model added a late pick for us in Luis Garcia, who went yard at the homer-dampening Oracle Park. We ended up +8.50u on the day for the home run model.
We’ve got day baseball today which can sometimes mean more homers (higher temperatures = balls fly farther). Seven picks on the docket; let’s have another big slate. So far we’re up 23 units since launch.
Best home run bets today
Picks below all cleared our +175 edge filter at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Pinnacle, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
Spencer Horwitz (PIT): +1000
Horwitz is fresh off a home run in his last game in the lineup (June 7) against Bryce Elder, a 103.1 mph, 411-foot shot (BANG of 83.6 on the play). The contact quality is moving the right direction into tonight’s matchup with Shohei Ohtani, who is one of the most elite pitchers in the league (BANG-against of 3.8).
Ohtani has only given up two homers on the season, one against a lefty (which Horwitz is) and one against a righty. But if Horwitz was going to homer off an elite pitcher, Ohtani would be a good one; all of his homers are against righties (8 in 197 PAs).
It’s a tough matchup for sure, but Horwitz’s 10/1 odds are baking that in already. For a guy that’s been heating up (8.1 BANG in his last 7 games), we think the price is right.
Ernie Clement (TOR): +1100
Clement is fresh off a home run on June 8 against the dominant Cristopher Sánchez, a 100.0 mph, 399-foot shot (BANG of 66.1 on the play). The contact quality is moving the right direction into tonight’s matchup with Jesús Luzardo.
On the platoon side: Clement has hit 3 of his HRs against LHP this year (3 in 74 PA, one every 24). On the other side, Luzardo has allowed 7 HR to RHB in 242 PA this year (2.9%). It’s the right platoon for both sides.
There’s a recent-contact tailwind too: L7 BANG of 5.5 is above his season 4.4. Hot bats come in clumps. Take the price while it’s here.
Carson Benge (NYM): +900
Benge is another batter with a recent homer hot streak. He’s had four homers and five barrels since May 31, culminating in a 106.4 mph, 389-foot shot on Sunday. The contact quality is moving the right direction into tonight’s matchup with Andre Pallante; his BANG over the last 7 games is 11.2, which is very close to elite territory.
On the platoon side: Benge has hit 5 of his HRs against RHP this year (5 in 202 PA, one every 40). On the other side, Pallante has allowed 5 HR to LHB in 145 PA this year (3.4%). It’s another good platoon split, and we like the price quite a bit on Benge, who should probably be closer to 5/1.
Keibert Ruiz (WSH): +1000
This one is about the pitcher, not the hitter. Robbie Ray has been one of the more hittable left-handed starters in the league this year, Ruiz is just the cheapest way to get on the Ray-is-bad side of the action at +1000.
His L7 BANG (3.0) is well off his season number (5.5), so this isn’t a hot-bat play. The bet is on the matchup + price, not recent form.
The weather should be homer-conducive; it’s expected to be 80 degrees with light winds blowing out at Oracle Park, which is typically a pitcher-friendly environment. We like the price here.
Colson Montgomery (CWS): +700
Montgomery’s odds are drifting to a point where someone of his power profile simply should not be, even against a tough pitcher in Chris Sale.
The price may be a result of the platoon split; lefty on lefty is never super conducive to home runs. But Montgomery hasn’t been terrible against his own hand; 4 homers in 78 PAs (once every 19.5 plate appearances). Sale has only given up one homer to a lefty this year, but has only faced 78 of them.
Park is a tick hitter-friendly tonight (1.05). Weather adds another 11.5% HR boost.
Drifted picks
These picks were shown on the home run model earlier today, but have since drifted out of best bet range. You still may be able to find these prices at some books, or request them at Novig or ProphetX.
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT) +1100 — Coming off a 111.6 mph, 422-foot HR yesterday vs Eric Lauer. Faces Ohtani, who’s been stingy (1 HR allowed to LHB all season in 119 PA, 0.8%).
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) +650 — 107.3 mph shot yesterday vs Tim Herrin and L7 BANG of 10.5 way above his season 5.2. Faces Parker Messick (2 HR allowed to LHB in 78 PA, 2.6%).
- Matt McLain (CIN) +850 — Red-hot L7 BANG of 14.2 dwarfs his season 5.9. Park (0.90) is the one knock, but his bat is loud enough to absorb it.
- Taylor Ward (BAL) +800 — Cleanest BvP signal on the board: 3-for-30 with 3 HR career vs George Kirby, last meeting 2025-09-14.
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BvP matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG. A few standouts:
- Bryce Harper (PHI) vs Max Scherzer: combined BANG 9.5 (Harper 9.5, Scherzer allowing 9.5).
- Max Muncy (LAD) vs Jared Jones: combined BANG 9.4 (Muncy 10.1, Jones allowing 8.7).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) vs Max Scherzer: combined BANG 9.4 (Schwarber 9.4, Scherzer allowing 9.5).
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Batters with multiple home runs against starter today:
vs George Kirby (SEA)
- Taylor Ward (BAL): 3 HR / 30 PA
vs Max Scherzer (TOR)
- Bryce Harper (PHI): 3 HR / 31 PA
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI): 2 HR / 21 PA
- J.T. Realmuto (PHI): 2 HR / 60 PA
vs Shohei Ohtani (LAD)
- Henry Davis (PIT): 2 HR / 3 PA
vs Michael Lorenzen (COL)
- Ian Happ (CHC): 2 HR / 13 PA
vs Brady Singer (CIN)
- Gavin Sheets (SD): 2 HR / 26 PA
vs Reid Detmers (LAA)
- Jose Altuve (HOU): 2 HR / 24 PA
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck!