Yesterday was one of the banner frustrating days any home run bettor can relate to. Our three picks we wrote up didn’t hit, but the model flagged two more after the article was published: Matt McLain of the Reds, and Yohendrick Piñango of the Blue Jays. Both had long odds; Piñango was available around +1400 at several books despite being on a tear (he was our third-hardest hitter of last week with a BANG at 14.1).
Well, guess what? Both hit the ball hard. Piňango was second in total BANG yesterday among batters with at least three plate appearances; McLain was fifth. Piňango also had the fifth-hardest hit individual ball of the day at 116 MPH.
The problem? Neither of them homered. Both, however, appeared on the “Near Home Run” Twitter account. Which is the bane of my existence. The account that tells you “your research was spot-on, but you don’t get the money.” Fun stuff!
Anyway, we’re treading water a bit with the home run model, but we’re still positive, and the peripheral signs suggest we could be due for a big day. It’s Dinger Tuesday - why not today? Here are the picks.
Best home run bets today
Picks below all cleared our +175 edge filter at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Pinnacle, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
Dylan Crews (WSH): +1100
Biggest edge on the board today. Crews is on a tear: his L7 BANG of 12.2 is way up from his season 8.6, his barrel rate over the last 7 games is 15.8%, and three days ago he launched a 432-foot moonshot off Eduardo Rodriguez at 108.6 mph exit velocity (BANG of 96.5 on that single play). That’s not a flare or a fluky liner. That’s a square barrel from a 23-year-old whose contact quality is starting to catch up to the prospect billing after he was demoted to the minors earlier this year.
The matchup helps. He faces Nationals righty Adrian Houser tonight, who has given up 7 HRs to lefties in 174 PA this year and 3 to righties in 104 PA — workable from either side, but the model especially likes the alignment because Crews is a righty whose 7.3 BANG vs RHP over 1,000+ career PAs is solidly above league average. Houser isn’t terrible, but he’s the kind of straight-stuff fourth starter who gives up loud contact when batters are seeing him well.
BvP history is essentially nonexistent: Crews faced Houser twice last August and didn’t homer. Meaningless either way at 2 PAs. The rest of the math (model fair odds around +423, market at +1100) is loud. At eleven-to-one on a hot bat in a beatable matchup, this is the bet to build the night around.
Matt McLain (CIN): +750
We already talked about the frustrating near-miss from McLain yesterday, but now is not the time to jump off the wagon. McLain is in the middle of one of the better weeks anyone in baseball is having. Three home runs in the last 7 games, all of them barreled: 405-foot shot off George Soriano, 411 off Michael McGreevy, and a 381-foot blast off Matthew Liberatore. His L7 BANG sits at 14.5 against a season number of 6.0, a 140% jump, and his last-7 barrel rate is 26.7%. He’s not just getting lucky with bunches; he’s squaring everything up.
He faces Lucas Giolito tonight, who has not been very good against righties; he has a 8.6 BANG-against and has given up 2 homers in 32 plate appearances. McLain himself has 1 HR in 3 PA against Giolito (small sample but loud), and Giolito has been vulnerable enough this year that even tiny-sample BvP signals start to feel like real evidence.
Math says fair odds around +495; market at +750 leaves +255 edge. Hot bat, soft matchup, soft enough price. The model’s confidence here is high.
Brandon Valenzuela (TOR): +700
We were on Valenzuela last week off the back of the Tyler Kinley moonshot. The follow-up has been even better. He’s now homered three times in the last 7 games: Kinley on the 3rd (399 feet, 80.7 BANG), Brandon Young on the 5th (417 feet, 91.6 BANG), and Rico Garcia yesterday (388 feet, 68.5 BANG). His L7 BANG is 14.7, his barrel rate is 23.5%, his max exit velocity over the week is 106.2. The bat is genuinely hot in a way that didn’t show up in the BANG number a week ago.
The catch: he faces Zack Wheeler tonight, who’s a legitimate top-of-rotation arm. Wheeler has allowed 2 HRs to right-handed bats in 77 PA this year (2.6% rate, very low). No BvP history — Valenzuela has never faced Wheeler in his career.
So why bet it? Because the model’s math accounts for Wheeler being good. Valenzuela’s HR rate vs RHP this year (1 per ~20 PAs) times Wheeler’s micro-suppression still lands fair odds around +500. The market at +700 is paying you to absorb the “but Wheeler’s good” headline. Hot bat in a tough but not insurmountable spot. If you’d rather size down, take a smaller-than-1u position. If you trust the data, take the full price.
Other best bets
- Brayan Rocchio (CLE) +1200, model edge +236. Long shot. He’s a switch hitter facing Gerrit Cole, who’s been giving up nearly nothing to right-handed bats (1 HR / 24 PA) but more vulnerable to lefties (2 / 44). Rocchio’s L7 BANG (4.9) is meh, but he hit a 387-foot bomb on the 6th off Jack Leiter. At twelve-to-one against a Cy Young arm, this is a degen-only swing.
- Curtis Mead (WSH) +850, model edge +215. Same matchup as Crews (Adrian Houser). Mead’s L7 BANG (5.9) is cooler than his L15 (10.3) so he’s trending the wrong way, but his max EV of 110.1 in the L7 says the bat speed is fine.
- Andy Pages (LAD) +650, model edge +188. Faces Paul Skenes, who’s elite. Pages has 1 HR in 6 career PAs vs Skenes — a tiny but loud BvP signal. Skenes has been roughly equal vs RHB and LHB (3 HRs each), so the platoon angle is neutral. This is a “trust the BvP” pick at a fair price.
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BvP matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG.
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Batters with multiple home runs against starter today:
vs Eric Lauer (LAD)
- Marcell Ozuna (PIT): 3 HR / 12 PA
vs Erick Fedde (CWS)
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL): 3 HR / 23 PA
vs Gerrit Cole (NYY)
- José Ramírez (CLE): 3 HR / 33 PA
vs Lucas Giolito (PHI)
- Bryce Harper (PHI): 2 HR / 5 PA
- Trea Turner (PHI): 2 HR / 8 PA
vs Freddy Peralta (NYM)
- Pedro Pagés (STL): 2 HR / 6 PA
vs Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)
- Kyle Isbel (KC): 2 HR / 8 PA
vs Trevor Rogers (BAL)
- Randy Arozarena (SEA): 2 HR / 9 PA
vs Dylan Cease (TOR)
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI): 2 HR / 13 PA
vs Logan Gilbert (SEA)
- Leody Taveras (BAL): 2 HR / 18 PA
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck this Dinger Tuesday!