The stock market may have taken an absolute dive this week, with the S&P down over 200 points on Friday alone, but fear not - we have lots of home run bets on the board to make up for those losses. (I hope my sarcasm is coming through - gambling is not a better way to make money long-term than investing - but we like to have fun here at HeatRadar.)
Yesterday’s blog went 0-2 at flat 1u, -2.00u on the writeups. Brandon Valanzuela was a pick but wasn’t in the lineup. The home run model is still at +27.5 units since launch.
Best home run bets today
Picks below all cleared our +175 edge filter at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Pinnacle, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
J.P. Crawford (SEA): +1000
Crawford is fresh off a home run 2026-06-03 against Freddy Peralta, a 103.3 mph, 409-foot shot (BANG of 83.1 on the play). The contact quality is moving the right direction into tonight’s matchup with Framber Valdez.
On the platoon side: Crawford has hit 1 of his HRs against LHP this year (1 in 70 PA, one every 70). On the other side, Valdez has allowed 2 HR to LHB in 74 PA this year (2.7%).
There’s a recent-contact tailwind too: L7 BANG of 10.4 is above his season 5.8.
Weather adds another 10.8% HR boost.
Hot bats come in clumps. Take the price while it’s here.
Jacob Young (WSH): +1200
Young is fresh off a home run 2026-06-01 against Sandy Alcantara, a 99.5 mph, 393-foot shot (BANG of 59.0 on the play). The contact quality is moving the right direction into tonight’s matchup with Merrill Kelly.
On the platoon side: Young has hit 7 of his HRs against RHP this year (7 in 150 PA, one every 21). On the other side, Kelly has allowed 3 HR to RHB in 99 PA this year (3.0%).
Riding the streak.
Colt Emerson (SEA): +1100
Emerson is fresh off a home run 2026-06-01 against Sean Manaea, a 99.6 mph, 368-foot shot (BANG of 36.6 on the play). The contact quality is moving the right direction into tonight’s matchup with Framber Valdez.
Weather adds another 10.8% HR boost.
Hot bats come in clumps. Take the price while it’s here.
Bryan Torres (STL): +1100
This is the pitcher pick: the opposing starter has been on the hittable side this year, and Torres is the cheapest way to take the long-price shot at +1100.
Get on the pitcher-is-bad side and take your shot.
Ozzie Albies (ATL): +750
Albies is fresh off a home run 2026-06-03 against Adam Macko, a 106.6 mph, 393-foot shot (BANG of 82.8 on the play). The contact quality is moving the right direction into tonight’s matchup with Mitch Keller.
On the platoon side: Albies has hit 6 of his HRs against RHP this year (6 in 158 PA, one every 26).
There’s a recent-contact tailwind too: L7 BANG of 8.5 is above his season 5.1.
Hot bats come in clumps. Take the price while it’s here.
Gleyber Torres (DET): +1100
Torres is fresh off a home run 2026-06-02 against Steven Matz, a 106.3 mph, 433-foot shot (BANG of 94.8 on the play). The contact quality is moving the right direction into tonight’s matchup with Bryan Woo.
On the platoon side: Torres has hit 2 of his HRs against RHP this year (2 in 112 PA, one every 56). On the other side, Woo has allowed 2 HR to RHB in 124 PA this year (1.6%).
There’s a recent-contact tailwind too: L7 BANG of 6.1 is above his season 4.4.
The park leans slightly pitcher-friendly (0.93), but the rest of the profile is loud enough to absorb it. Weather adds another 10.8% HR boost.
Riding the streak.
Tyler Freeman (COL): +1000
This one is about the pitcher, not the hitter. Brandon Sproat has been one of the more hittable right-handed starters in the league this year. He’s given up 6 HRs to right-handed bats in 112 PAs this year, a 5.4% rate that’s well above where you want a starter sitting. Freeman is just the cheapest way to get on the Sproat-is-bad side of the action at +1000.
There’s a recent-contact tailwind too: L7 BANG of 7.8 is above his season 4.7.
Park is a tick hitter-friendly tonight (1.20). Weather adds another 7.3% HR boost.
The pitcher is the bet, not the bat.
Keibert Ruiz (WSH): +1000
Ruiz is fresh off a home run 2026-05-29 against Lucas Giolito, a 95.3 mph, 382-foot shot (BANG of 32.1 on the play). The contact quality is moving the right direction into tonight’s matchup with Merrill Kelly.
On the platoon side: Ruiz has hit 3 of his HRs against RHP this year (3 in 79 PA, one every 26). On the other side, Kelly has allowed 7 HR to LHB in 135 PA this year (5.2%).
There’s a pitcher angle here too. Merrill Kelly has been on the hittable side for RHP this year: 7 HR allowed to LHB in 135 PA (5.2%).
Park is a tick hitter-friendly tonight (1.05).
Riding the streak.
Dillon Dingler (DET): +650
Dingler is fresh off a home run 2026-06-03 against Nick Martinez, a 104.4 mph, 361-foot shot (BANG of 49.4 on the play). The contact quality is moving the right direction into tonight’s matchup with Bryan Woo.
On the platoon side: Dingler has hit 11 of his HRs against RHP this year (11 in 155 PA, one every 14). On the other side, Woo has allowed 2 HR to RHB in 124 PA this year (1.6%).
There’s a recent-contact tailwind too: L7 BANG of 12.7 is above his season 9.5.
The park leans slightly pitcher-friendly (0.93), but the rest of the profile is loud enough to absorb it. Weather adds another 10.8% HR boost.
Hot bats come in clumps. Take the price while it’s here.
Wenceel Perez (DET): +850
Perez is fresh off a home run 2026-06-02 against Steven Matz, a 108.1 mph, 404-foot shot (BANG of 90.4 on the play). The contact quality is moving the right direction into tonight’s matchup with Bryan Woo.
On the platoon side: Perez has hit 2 of his HRs against RHP this year (2 in 107 PA, one every 53). On the other side, Woo has allowed 2 HR to RHB in 124 PA this year (1.6%).
There’s a recent-contact tailwind too: L7 BANG of 7.8 is above his season 6.2.
The park leans slightly pitcher-friendly (0.94), but the rest of the profile is loud enough to absorb it. Weather adds another 10.8% HR boost.
Riding the streak.
Jake McCarthy (COL): +800
McCarthy is fresh off a home run 2026-06-01 against José Soriano, a 104.6 mph, 397-foot shot (BANG of 80.0 on the play). The contact quality is moving the right direction into tonight’s matchup with Brandon Sproat.
On the platoon side: McCarthy has hit 4 of his HRs against RHP this year (4 in 143 PA, one every 35). On the other side, Sproat has allowed 4 HR to LHB in 105 PA this year (3.8%).
There’s a recent-contact tailwind too: L7 BANG of 8.0 is above his season 5.6.
Park is a tick hitter-friendly tonight (1.25). Weather adds another 7.3% HR boost.
Hot bats come in clumps. Take the price while it’s here.
Jarren Duran (BOS): +600
Duran is fresh off a home run 2026-05-31 against Tanner Bibee, a 107.9 mph, 402-foot shot (BANG of 89.4 on the play). The contact quality is moving the right direction into tonight’s matchup with Ryan Weathers.
On the platoon side: Duran has hit 1 of his HRs against LHP this year (1 in 62 PA, one every 62). On the other side, Weathers has allowed 2 HR to LHB in 54 PA this year (3.7%).
Park is a tick hitter-friendly tonight (1.18).
Riding the streak.
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BvP matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG. A few standouts:
- James Wood (WSH) vs Merrill Kelly: combined BANG 11.2 (Wood 10.9, Kelly allowing 11.5).
- Jake Bauers (MIL) vs Ryan Feltner: combined BANG 9.6 (Bauers 8.3, Feltner allowing 10.9).
- Jordan Walker (STL) vs Brady Singer: combined BANG 9.5 (Walker 9.8, Singer allowing 9.2).
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Batters with multiple home runs against starter today:
vs Mitch Keller (PIT)
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL): 3 HR / 21 PA
vs Michael Wacha (KC)
- Josh Bell (MIN): 2 HR / 29 PA
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck!