Yesterday’s picks went 2-of-10 from the morning writeup at flat 1u. Ozzie Albies cashed at +750; we bet him becuase of his BvP matchup against Patrick Corbin, so of course he went yard against Adam Macko. Shrug emoji. Then, J.P. Crawford finally got there at +750 after we’d been riding him three straight days.
Everything else missed, several close. Net +7u on the writeups, so not bad for a full slate. Today the board is light: 3 picks on a 9-game slate.
Best home run bets today
Picks below all cleared our +175 edge filter at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Pinnacle, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
Mookie Betts (LAD): +609
Mookie’s having one of the colder weeks of his career. His L7 BANG is 2.1 against a season number of 6.5, with a zero percent barrel rate over the last 7 games and an average hit distance of 148 feet, way down from his 200 season mark. He hasn’t homered in a week. If all you saw was the rolling-window numbers you’d run from this pick.
The reason we still want him: it’s Mookie, and the books are pricing him like a fringe roster guy because he’s gone seven games without a dinger. He’s faced tonight’s starter Ryne Nelson sixteen times in his career and gone deep once, which works out to roughly the same HR rate as his full-year mark vs righties (4 in 88 PA, one every 22). Nelson has surrendered 15 HRs in 278 PA this year, slightly above the league baseline for a starter, and is the kind of straight-stuff righty Mookie has historically eaten alive.
There’s also a wider Dodgers angle on this one. Look at tonight’s top BvP matchups and you’ll find four Dodgers in the top eight vs Nelson: Muncy is second, Pages fourth, Freeman sixth, Will Smith eighth. The model thinks Nelson is in for a rough night. Mookie just happens to be the bat whose price has drifted the most because of the cold streak.
One last thing the BANG number is hiding. Mookie’s max exit velocity over the last 7 games is 108.1, which is higher than his season max. He’s hitting the ball plenty hard; he’s just hitting it on the ground or off the end of the bat. That kind of profile doesn’t stay cold for long. Chase Field is at a 1.03 park multiplier tonight even with the roof closed. We’re back on the Mookmaster. (I’m trying it. Don’t @ me.)
Brandon Valenzuela (TOR): +1000
The “hot bat” angle on Valenzuela is thinner than it looks. His L7 BANG of 6.5 is barely above his season 5.9, and his L15 (5.2) is actually below it. So if you wanted to fade him on “the BANG isn’t really moving,” fair read.
But the contact quality is moving even if the average isn’t. His barrel percentage over the last 7 games is 10.5, well above his season rate, and yesterday he launched a 399-foot moonshot off Marlins reliever Tyler Kinley at 104.4 mph exit velocity (BANG of 80.7 on that single play). The barrel rate moves first; the dingers usually follow.
The catch is who he’s facing. Chris Sale has allowed exactly one home run to a right-handed batter in 67 PAs this year, a 1.5% rate against a position group that hits homers at roughly twice that league-wide. If you wanted an excuse to fade, “the lefty is Chris Sale” is the obvious one.
The math still works at +1000 though. Valenzuela’s HR rate vs LHP this year (1 every 18 PA, his best platoon split) times Sale’s micro-suppression vs RHB lands fair odds around +665. The market giving you ten-to-one is paying you to absorb the “but Sale is good” headline. If the contact data is right, take it. If you’d rather size down on a Sale-fade, no shame in that either.
Jose Caballero (NYY): +1000
This one is about the pitcher, not the hitter. Slade Cecconi has been one of the more hittable righties in the league this year. Six HRs allowed to right-handed bats in 126 PAs, a 4.8% rate that’s well above where you want a starter sitting. The model rates Cecconi low enough that Aaron Judge is in the top 10 of tonight’s BvP matchup board against him. Caballero is just the cheapest way to get on the Cecconi-is-bad side of the action.
Caballero’s profile is not what you want to bet otherwise. His L7 BANG is 2.3, his season is 3.7, both below average, and his career rate vs righties is one HR every 63 PAs. So we’re not pretending he’s the hitter you’d choose for this kind of edge. The bet is on Cecconi being bad enough that even a modest bat sees an elevated HR probability, and the book hasn’t adjusted hard enough. Model lands him at fair odds around +720; market has him at +1000.
There’s also a real weather assist: 1.073 multiplier at Yankee Stadium tonight, wind out toward right-center. Caballero pulled his HR yesterday off Gavin Williams to exactly that part of the field. He won’t barrel one up the way Judge will. But the price is paying us to bet the worse outcome than the actual probability, so here we are.
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BvP matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG. A few standouts:
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs Jared Jones: combined BANG 10.1 (Yordan 12.6, Jones allowing 7.5).
- Max Muncy (LAD) vs Ryne Nelson: combined BANG 9.9 (Muncy 10.3, Nelson allowing 9.4). The Dodger stack vs Nelson runs deep tonight; Pages, Freeman, and Will Smith all crack the top 10.
- Casey Schmitt (SF) vs Coleman Crow: combined BANG 9.2 (Schmitt 9.1, Crow allowing 9.4).
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Batters with multiple home runs against starter today:
vs Lucas Giolito (SD)
- Bryce Harper (PHI): 2 HR / 5 PA
- Trea Turner (PHI): 2 HR / 8 PA
(Harper 2-for-5 PAs with home runs is one of the cleanest BvP signals on the entire board this season. Whatever Giolito has been throwing him, he’s been picking it up early.)
vs Brayan Bello (BOS)
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL): 2 HR / 25 PA
- Adley Rutschman (BAL): 2 HR / 20 PA
vs Zack Wheeler (PHI)
- Jackson Merrill (SD): 2 HR / 7 PA
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck!