This is a first for HeatRadar: we have 10 picks on the board this morning (as of around 11 AM CST), the most we’ve had since launch. Our model underwent a few tweaks over the last week as we noticed one gate we had was leaving money on the board; today will be a full-throated test of that change.
So far, the results have been strong; on Saturday, the first day, we went 3-for-5 for a staggering +21 units. No picks Sunday, then Monday we went 1-for-2 to go up another 6.5 units. Yesterday, however, was a setback: 0-for-5, -5 units.
There’s good weather, day baseball and a decent amount of hittable pitchers throwing today. Should be a bonanza.
We won’t write up all the picks today; all of them will be available though at the HR model landing page. Additionally, some might come and go as odds, weather and matchups shift.
Best home run bets today
Picks below all cleared our +175 edge filter at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Pinnacle, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
Jacob Young (WSH): +1200
Young is our single largest edge on the board today at +365 from the best price on the board (Hard Rock). Young has been heating up. His L15 BANG score (11.6) is up 90% vs his season baseline, and the model is leaning into the recent form.
He’s facing a hittable righty in Miami today in Max Meyer, who has actually been worse against righties than lefties despite being a righty himself. Meyer has given up four of his five homers this season to righties, and Young has hit seven of his eight homers against them.
Additionally, Young has faced Meyer twice in his career and gotten two hits. No homers, but that’s still some very strong (albeit brief) history.
This is not the profile of a player that should be in the 10/1+ range. Bet him.
Carson Benge (NYM): +900
Our second-biggest edge on the board belongs to Carson Benge, who lags behind by just ten points.
Benge homered twice yesterday against Logan Gilbert, barrelled the ball up for a loud flyout the game before, and homered again the game before that. To say he is hot is an understatement; his last 7 BANG is a massive 15.0, up over 100% from his season-long baseline.
We like to lean into hot streaks, and he is facing the right platoon split again today in righty George Kirby - who throws a ton of strikes. At +900, we see no reason to go back to the Benge.
Colt Emerson (SEA): +900
The Mariners’ top prospect has been in the big leagues for 15 games and has already made an impact, launching three home runs in that span and compiled a .935 OPS.
The power hasn’t been the most consistent, with only a 4.5 BANG, but he’s been heating up with two homers in his last four games. He’s been much better against righties (5.2 BANG vs. 3.1), and faces one tonight (albeit a tough one in Freddy Peralta).
Model edge of +267 on the YES side tonight. We have fair odds for Emerson around +687; the +900 you’re seeing at Hard Rock and PointsBet is meaningfully longer than the situation warrants.
Ozzie Albies (ATL): +750
We talk a lot about BvP history at HeatRadar; guys with multiple home runs in a meaningful number of at-bats against a pitcher tend to homer again.
The headline angle for Albies tonight is that head-to-head history. He has faced the dinger-serving Patrick Corbin 33 times in his career and homered three times, or once every eleven at-bats. If we assume he will get at only two at-bats against Corbin, the fair price based on just history would be +550, and would likely have two ABs left at least.
His season BANG/PA is 4.9 (below league average), but he’s been trending slightly up, and has a solid nine homers on the season already. Either way, we trust the history over anything.
Josh Jung (TEX): +1000
Jung cashed for us on that huge Saturday where we went up 21 units. He hasn’t homered again in the three games since. Can we make it 2-for-2?
Model edge of +231 on the YES side tonight. We have fair odds for Jung around +669; the +900 you’re seeing at Hard Rock (and +1000 at Onyx, as of Wednesday morning) is a significant drift away from his power capability.
He’s at 7 HRs in 235 PA on the season, roughly one every 33 plate appearances. His season BANG/PA is 6.5 (around league average), but 10/1 or even 9/1 is a big enough edge for the model to trigger.
J.P. Crawford (SEA): +750
We’ve been riding Crawford for a couple days to no luck, but there’s no glory in hopping off the wagon now. Same platoon split as Emerson and Crawford is meaningfully better against righties (6.3 BANG vs 4.0).
Gunnar Henderson (BAL): +600
We’re back on the Goon-wagon. Gooner Henderson goes yard tonight after missing for us yesterday.
Freddie Freeman (LAD): +600
The second meaningful BvP history we have on the best bets board; Freeman has faced Zac Gallen 28 times in his career and homered twice with six hits. That’s not the greatest history in the world, but he did hit a homer yesterday, so we’ll take him at 6/1.
Other best bets:
- Marcus Semien, NYM (+900), 1 HR against George Kirby
- Spencer Steer, CIN (+600), 10.9 BANG last 7 games
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BvP matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG. A few standouts:
- Michael Harris II (ATL) vs Patrick Corbin: combined BANG 9.4 (Harris 12.2, Corbin allowing 6.7).
- Max Muncy (LAD) vs Zac Gallen: combined BANG 9.2 (Muncy 10.4, Gallen allowing 8.0).
- Aaron Judge (NYY) vs Gavin Williams: combined BANG 8.9 (Judge 10.7, Williams allowing 7.1).
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Batters with multiple home runs against starter today:
vs Patrick Corbin (TOR)
- Ozzie Albies (ATL): 3 HR / 33 PA
- Austin Riley (ATL): 3 HR / 35 PA
vs Nick Martinez (TB)
- Riley Greene (DET): 2 HR / 4 PA
vs Taj Bradley (MIN)
- Colson Montgomery (CWS): 2 HR / 7 PA
vs Cristopher Sánchez (PHI)
- Freddy Fermin (SD): 2 HR / 4 PA
vs Michael Lorenzen (COL)
- Jo Adell (LAA): 2 HR / 12 PA
vs Gerrit Cole (NYY)
- José Ramírez (CLE): 2 HR / 30 PA
vs Zac Gallen (AZ)
- Freddie Freeman (LAD): 2 HR / 28 PA
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck!