Our home run model is cooking over the last few days; we went up 21 units on Saturday, had no picks on Sunday, then went up another 6.5 units Monday with our hit on Dillon Dingler. Dingler hit not one but TWO dingers yesterday, which doesn’t really count for our purposes if you’re just betting 1+ homer. But it’s nice, I suppose.
Today is Dinger Tuesday - and might I add, the shell of a once-great institution - but many of the sportsbooks are still offering some sort of bonus or boost for home run bets on Tuesdays. So, we will be pretending it’s 2022 and playing some dingers tonight.
Only two best bets for the home run model so far today, but the model is constantly scanning for line movements, weather and news - so new bets pop up all the time. If you want to spray the board, check back later to see if we have any more juice. They also may drop off the
Best home run bets today
Picks below all cleared our +175 edge filter at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Pinnacle, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
Gunnar Henderson (BAL): +700
Our first bet of the day is Gooner Henderson. (Wait, did I just write that on the internet?)
The Goonmaster is heating up, with a higher BANG factor in the last 7 games (7.8) and in the last 15 (8.0) than his season average (7.0). He’s barreled the ball up twice in the last two games, but neither left the yard; one was a line-out and the other was a 382-foot double that hit 62.6 on the BANG scale.
He’s facing a lefty tonight, which is not ideal given he’s a lefty himself, but he is not exactly facing a tough one. Young Red Sox southpaw Connelly Early has been giving up lots of hard contact, especially against lefties who have 4 homers off him in 64 plate appearances.
Henderson, himself, has been no slouch against lefties, hitting 6 HRs in 80 PAs. That includes this lefty; Gooner and Early matched up earlier this season and the Baltimore slugger went yard once in three plate appearances.
Model edge of +224 on the YES side tonight. We have fair odds for Henderson around +426; the +650 you’re seeing at PointsBet is meaningfully longer than the situation warrants. Or, if you’re using FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday boost, you could get this up to around +850.
We’re back on the Goonwagon tonight. (Again, I apologize.)
Yandy Diaz (TB): +550
Diaz is heating up. His L7 and L15 BANG trends are up significantly from their season averages; over the last seven he’s at 14.2, which is sixth in the league among qualified batters. He’s bashing the ball right now, and his odds still haven’t totally caught up.
Diaz has faced Detroit’s starting pitcher Jack Flaherty 11 times in his career, going 4-for-10 with a homer and a 1.155 OPS. Flaherty is having an okay season, but at least we’re not in Comerica Park, which is less hitter-friendly than tonight’s venue in Tropicana.
We’ve lost a little bit of value in this pick from the morning; he’s dropped down to +550 in most places, which is a notch below our +175 gate. But he’d be a perfect candidate for the FanDuel boost or shopping around on Novig or ProphetX. Anything above +560 is great value.
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BvP matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG. A few standouts:
- Mike Trout (LAA) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: combined BANG 11.1 (Trout 9.8, Sugano allowing 12.4).
- Jo Adell (LAA) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: combined BANG 10.0 (Adell 7.6, Sugano allowing 12.4).
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) vs Jameson Taillon: combined BANG 9.8 (Langeliers 10.0, Taillon allowing 9.6).
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Batters with multiple home runs against starter today:
vs Eric Lauer (LAD)
- Nolan Arenado (AZ): 4 HR / 33 PA (Arenado homered yesterday, too. Another guy worth a boost or a bet.)
- Ketel Marte (AZ): 2 HR / 22 PA
vs Kevin Gausman (TOR)
- Matt Olson (ATL): 2 HR / 16 PA
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck!