We’re back after a brief Memorial Day hiatus, one where the model didn’t spit out many picks anyway (and the ones that did were losers, so be glad). After an electric start to the HeatRadar home run model we’ve hit a bit of a losing streak, down to only being up 14 units. Things could be a lot worse, and considering the volatile nature of home run betting, I’d say we’re due for a banger very soon.
The home run fades, especially, keep churning out winners. Though, that may not be properly represented if you read our last blog; Kevin McGonigle decided to be a grinch and homer on Friday despite being one of the three fades I wrote up. Be sure to place a bunch of fade bets each day to ensure you cut through the randomness and can ride the wave of losing one or two; this is a volume game.
Without further ado, here are the bets for today that we are recommending. We only have one best bet on the YES side and one tier 1 fade (which are currently 28-3-1), but there are lots more just-below best bet candidates that still show value, as well as many tier 2 and 3 fades available at the model.
Best home run bets today
Picks below all cleared our +175 edge filter at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across BetRivers, Caesars, HardRock, Pinnacle, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
Willy Adames (SF): +600
San Francisco’s shortstop is the only player to pass all of our filters that qualify a player as a best bet today. Home run bets are hard to hit (don’t listen to all the fake slips out there on Twitter that make it seem otherwise), so we need good weather, a good matchup, and a high BANG score to qualify, even if their probability is showing a meaningful edge from the sportsbook.
Luckily, Adames passes all three filters. The wind is blowing out today at the typically homer-stingy Oracle Park for their matchup against the Diamondbacks, with decently warm weather (about 60 degrees expected at first pitch). Adames has also been hot; he has a BANG score of 9.2 over the last seven games, and has a homer and a barreled double in his last two.
The pitcher matchup is what pushes Adames over the edge. Arizona’s starter today is Merrill Kelly, who has a 12.6 BANG against this year – one of the hardest hard contact scores in the league. He has been better recently, but Adames has a great history against him; two homers in 33 plate appearances over his career (and a 10.4 BANG in those 33 appearances).
Years of backtesting while building this site showed that if a batter has multiple homers against the starting pitcher in a meaningful sample size, it’s a real signal that they will go yard again. Adames has owned Kelly in the past, and we expect him to do so again tonight in San Francisco.
Best home run fades today
We only have one Tier 1 fade on the board tonight, but there are dozens of more Tier 2 and Tier 3 fades available at the model. As a reminder, a “fade” means the YES price is overpriced enough that the NO side has positive expected value on a no-vig book like ProphetX or Novig. Bigger negative edge means the model is more confident the YES price is wrong.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD): fade at +600
One day, Fernando Tatis Jr. will hit his first home run of the season. That day could even be today. But more than likely, it won’t be, and until that day comes, we will keep making money off the other side – especially if he keeps getting priced in the +500 to +600 range.
The San Diego slugger’s power drop-off will be studied for generations to come. He’s had at least 20 homers in all of his professional seasons but one, but in 2026, he suddenly stopped hitting for power. His BANG on the season is below average at 6.3, and in the last week it’s gotten even worse at 3.6. He’s hitting a lot of weak fly balls, and the times he does square it up, he’s either hitting it on the ground or not far enough to travel out of the park.
And yes, he has zero home runs this year. At one point that streak simply has to break, but tonight he does not have an easy assignment in Jesus Luzardo, who has a BANG Against of 4.3 this season and has only allowed 5 homers in 55.1 innings.
The betting market, for some reason, still has him at 14.3% implied YES probability. Our model has him at 8.9%, a -424 edge against the YES side. NO HR is available around -599; fair NO sits around -1024. Anywhere below -800 is extremely fair, but you should be able to get him around -600 or -650.
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BANG matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG. A few standouts:
- Casey Schmitt (SF) vs Merrill Kelly: combined BANG 10.9 (Schmitt 9.2, Kelly allowing 12.6).
- Max Muncy (LAD) vs Tanner Gordon: combined BANG 10.7 (Muncy 10.5, Gordon allowing 10.9).
- Rafael Devers (SF) vs Merrill Kelly: combined BANG 10.1 (Devers 7.6, Kelly allowing 12.6).
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck!