No hit on yesterday’s lone pick in Willy Adames against Merrill Kelly, who seems to have woken up a bit after a miserable start to the season. Our Tier 1 fade in Fernando Tatis Jr. did cash for us, however. It’s genuinely stupefying what’s going on with Tatis this year; the hard contact is completely gone. He did have two hits yesterday (both singles), but one of them was an infield dribbler that came off his bat at 59 (!!!) miles per hour, and the other was a blooper to the short outfield. Both were on fastballs at 97+ MPH. He’s a Tier 2 fade for us again today.
Anyhoo, it’s Dinger Tuesday, and we have a couple picks today. Cold streak continues, but we’re still up 13 units. And our Tier 1 fades remain strong. Lots of other fades and near-miss best bets if you want to load up for Dinger Tuesday available at the HR model.
Best home run bets today
Picks below all cleared our +175 edge filter at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Pinnacle, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
Curtis Mead (WSH): +1000
We’re catching Curtis Mead in the middle of a ridiculous hot streak. He hit two homers in five plate appearances yesterday against the Guardians, and he’s back at The Jake (do they still call Progressive Field The Jake?) tonight. It’s going to be a warm night in Cleveland, and there isn’t too much wind in the forecast.
Mead and the Nationals face Joey Cantillo, a lefty hurler for the Guardians. Weirdly, despite being a righty, Mead has hit a little worse against lefties. But that might explain the long price at 10/1 for a guy that’s been absolutely raking recently. In our backtested research, we’ve also found platoon to be a little noisy compared to the general industry-wide perception.
For a guy that’s as hot as Mead, we can’t ignore the price.
CJ Abrams (WSH): +700
Let’s stay in Washington and bet Abrams, Mead’s teammate. Again, there’s a platoon mismatch here; 11 of Abrams’ 12 homers have come against righties, and Cantillo is a lefty. But like Mead, Abrams has been hot; he’s barreled the ball three times in his last four games, and homered yesterday. Cantillo doesn’t go particularly deep into games, having cleared six innings only twice this season.
A few things stack up for Abrams:
- L7 BANG of 10.6: Abrams has been hitting the ball very hard in the last week. We like catching guys in hot streaks.
- 12 HRs in 232 PA That’s one homer every 19 plate appearances. If you assume he gets four tonight, his season-long pace would be tracking closer to 5/1, not 7/1.
Cleared the filter. The numbers say bet it.
Dillon Dingler (DET): +700
Dingler Tuesday! The Tigers’ catcher is one of our favorites at HeatRadar for his typically-long odds to homer despite a strong power profile, and we like his matchup again tonight against the Angels.
Like the other two best bets here, Dingler has been trending up recently, having hit three balls 104 MPH or harder during Sunday’s double-header (one of them left the yard). His BANG in the last week is 9.3, up from an already-high 8.5 on the season. He also hits righties harder than lefties, and faces an average one tonight in Jack Kochanowicz.
It’s a shame he isn’t on the Yankees, because I can imagine how fun it would be to hear Michael Kay say “a ding-dong! From Dingler!” But I digress. If you have theScore Bet, you can get him up to +700; otherwise he’s lingering around +600 to +650.
Best home run fades today
Tier 1 fades on the board tonight, meaning the YES price is overpriced enough that the NO side has positive expected value on a no-vig book like ProphetX or Novig. Bigger negative edge means the model is more confident the YES price is wrong. There are more Tier 2 and Tier 3 fades available at the model.
Matt Chapman (SF): fade at +650
Oracle Park has been the worst park for homers in 2026, with some brutal caverns in left-and-right-center field and wind from the bay often blowing in. It’s slightly better for righties, which Chapman is, but that makes it only the third-worst.
And Chapman has been ice cold. He has one homer on the season, which came in March, and hasn’t barreled the ball since May 17. His season-long BANG score is 3.8, well below average, and it’s gone down to 2.8 in the last week.
Market has him at 13.3% implied YES probability. Our model has him at 8.5%, a -426 edge against the YES side. NO HR is available around -652; fair NO sits around -1076.
Fade or hammer the NO side on a no-vig book.
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC): fade at +650
The Pasquatch is another guy who has been noticably colder than his standard in 2026. He only has five home runs on the season, and his season-long BANG is 5.9, way below what a slugger of his caliber should be producing. In the past week, it’s been only 3.1, and he hasn’t barreled the ball since May 8.
All five of his homers have come against righties, and he faces one tonight in Cam Schlittler, which is maybe why there’s some enthusiasm. But Schlittler, a Cy Young candidate, is not an easy task.
Market has him at 13.3% implied YES probability. Our model has him at 9.7%, a -281 edge against the YES side. NO HR is available around -652; fair NO sits around -931.
The +650 price is based on reputation and vibes; he hasn’t been hitting the ball hard enough to justify that price.
Willy Adames (SF): fade at +550
How quickly things can change; Adames went from a best bet yesterday to a Tier 1 fade today.
He’s facing a lefty, which should be good for a righty, but he has no homers against lefties this year. And we’ve talked about how much a dead zone Oracle park is.
This is as much about price as anything. Market has him at 15.4% implied YES probability. Our model has him at 10.9%, a -267 edge against the YES side. NO HR is available around -549; fair NO sits around -817.
Matt Olson (ATL): fade at +475
Another slugger who has simply not been hitting the ball as hard as his standard recently. His season-long BANG is still strong at 10.6, but over the last 7 and last 15 games, that’s dropped to 6, which is below average.
He’s still being priced as an elite hitter below +500, and he has a tough lefty-on-lefty matchup tonight in Ranger Suarez.
Market has him at 17.4% implied YES probability. Our model has him at 12.0%, a -258 edge against the YES side. NO HR is available around -475; fair NO sits around -733.
He’ll break out of his slump at some point, but we don’t love it tonight.
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BANG matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG. A few standouts:
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) vs Randy Vásquez: combined BANG 9.2 (Schwarber 10.6, Vásquez allowing 7.7).
- Max Muncy (LAD) vs Kyle Freeland: combined BANG 8.9 (Muncy 10.5, Freeland allowing 7.4).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) vs Randy Vásquez: combined BANG 8.8 (Harper 9.9, Vásquez allowing 7.7).
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck this Dinger Tuesday!