We’re on a two-day cold streak after our huge Sunday. No hits since then, and yesterday’s blog (June 16) went 0-6-1 at flat 1u, -6.00u ❌ on the writeups. We’re down to up only 12 units since launch.
That said, we are not super far off with our recent picks. Pretty much everyone we took yesterday hit the ball hard; Donovan Walton hit a 365-foot double that registered 38.8 BANG (good enough for some home runs), Brooks Lee hit the ball three times over 96 MPH exit velocity, Alec Burleson did it four times, and both Joc Pederson and Luis Garcia hit 106 MPH singles. Even Ivan Herrera, who didn’t nearly homer, had two at-bats squandered after being hit by two pitches.
The model is correctly identifying hard contact, and free swingers. Home run betting is volatile; we we’re on the wrong side of variance yesterday. Let’s hope it works out today when we get day baseball.
Check back on the home run model later today as we will likely have more picks for the night games once we get closer to having accurate weather.
Best home run bets today
Picks below all cleared our filters at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Pinnacle, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
Noelvi Marte (CIN): +850
Marte’s been on a tear — three homers since Friday and a 15% barrel rate over his last seven games. The capstone was a 110 mph, 448-foot bomb off Zac Gallen on Sunday, the kind of swing that doesn’t cool off in 48 hours.
Nolan McLean is the matchup, and while it’s right-on-right (no platoon edge in our pocket), Marte’s been productive against RHP and McLean has allowed 3 HRs to RHB in 130 PA, so the suppression isn’t extreme. GABP leans 1.10 hitter-friendly for righties; weather adds another 5%. We’re paying +850 for a bat that’s been louder than its line.
Rodolfo Duran (SD): +850
The carry-over from yesterday’s writeup is intact: two homers since Saturday, 14.3% barrel rate, that 106.3 mph 432-foot blast off Rico Garcia (BANG 94.7 on the play) still echoing. Tonight he gets Kyle Leahy, who has allowed 3 HRs to RHB in 134 PA, so the matchup is workable.
The bigger thing here is the weather — tonight’s wind is doing real work at +12.6% HR boost, the highest of any pick on the board. Bat plus weather plus the same +850 number we had yesterday; we’re running it back.
J.T. Realmuto (PHI): +700
Realmuto carried a 107.4 mph, 412-foot HR off Ryan Gusto into Monday’s box score, the kind of contact you don’t fake. Tonight he draws Sandy Alcantara, the same arm we’re betting Harper against (more on that in a second). Citizens Bank plays slightly hitter-friendly at 1.05 for righties, with another 5-6% from the weather on top. The number is +700 against a starter who’s been giving up real contact lately, and Realmuto’s stat line says he’s still swinging.
JJ Bleday (CIN): +400
Bleday went deep off David Peterson Monday (98.1 mph, 365 feet) and now he draws Nolan McLean — the same starter we’re betting Marte against, from the other side.
Different angle: Bleday’s a LHB and McLean has allowed 5 HRs to lefties in 187 PA this year, a 2.7% rate. Bleday himself has been crushing righties this year, 10 HRs in 140 PA — basically one every 14 — and the GABP park plays 1.13 for left-handed pull power. Two Reds off the same starter from opposite sides of the box; one of them at +400 has to land.
Marcus Semien (NYM): +475
This one is the most market-driven pick of the slate. Semien has 1 HR in 6 career PAs against Nick Lodolo, which isn’t much sample but is the right shape, and Lodolo has been homer-prone against RHB this year at 5.5% (7 HRs in 127 PA). Semien’s own platoon line vs LHP is thin (1 HR in 69 PA), so we’re not pretending the bat side is bringing the weight here. We’re paying +475 for the matchup history and the pitcher profile. The math gets there even if you squint at the platoon split.
Bryce Harper (PHI): +400
Best receipt on the board tonight: Harper has gone deep three times in 54 career PAs against Sandy Alcantara, most recently last September. That’s the cleanest BvP signal anywhere on the slate.
The platoon math is also working — Alcantara has allowed 9 HRs to LHB in 242 PA (3.7%), Harper sits at 12 HRs against RHP in 186 PA, and the Citizens Bank wind boost (+5.7%) is friendly for a left-handed pull bat. +400 is shorter than we usually take, but the signals stack as well as anything we’ll put on the board this week.
Juan Soto (NYM): +314
Stacking Mets off Nick Lodolo, and Soto is the heavier side of the pair. He has 1 HR in 3 career PAs against Lodolo — short file, right shape — and he’s at 4 HRs against LHP in 80 PA this year. Lodolo has only allowed 1 HR to LHB in 44 PA, so this isn’t a pitcher-vulnerability bet; it’s a Soto-being-Soto bet with a friendly GABP park (1.13 for lefties) attached. +314 is the shortest line on our board tonight, which is what happens when you back the slate’s biggest bat with positive context. We trust the bat.
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BvP matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG. A few standouts:
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) vs Zack Littell: combined BANG 9.0 (Witt 8.8, Littell allowing 9.2).
- Juan Soto (NYM) vs Nick Lodolo: combined BANG 8.8 (Soto 10.4, Lodolo allowing 7.3).
- Jac Caglianone (KC) vs Zack Littell: combined BANG 8.8 (Caglianone 8.4, Littell allowing 9.2).
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Batters with multiple home runs against starter today:
vs George Kirby (SEA)
- Taylor Ward (BAL): 3 HR / 33 PA
- Pete Alonso (BAL): 2 HR / 10 PA
vs Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
- Bryce Harper (PHI): 3 HR / 54 PA
- Trea Turner (PHI): 2 HR / 42 PA
- J.T. Realmuto (PHI): 2 HR / 40 PA
vs Shohei Ohtani (LAD)
- Cedric Mullins (TB): 2 HR / 6 PA
vs Kyle Bradish (BAL)
- Luke Raley (SEA): 2 HR / 11 PA
vs Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ)
- Trey Mancini (LAA): 2 HR / 48 PA
vs Aaron Civale (ATH)
- Bryan Reynolds (PIT): 2 HR / 21 PA
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck!