It’s Wednesday, and we have day baseball. We also have seven picks that the HeatRadar model tracked, which is the most we’ve had since our launch on May 12. The sun is shining, there’s warm weather across the league, and it’s a good day to hit some winners.
We’re always working at HeatRadar to improve our models, and the HR fades will be light today as we rework some of the logic to improve our ROI. We’ve been shadow-tracking data since launch and we spotted an opportunity, which should be implemented by tomorrow.
Additionally, we launched a new page on the site yesterday: a running list of every hitter who has at least one home run off the starting pitcher they are facing on the current day. We know that previous homers predict future ones to some extent, so we wanted all the data in one place. The list can be found on the Today’s BvP (batter vs. pitcher) section of the site.
Best home run bets today
Picks below all cleared our +175 edge filter at this morning’s commit. Best lines listed are the prices to shop for across Caesars, BetRivers, Hard Rock, Pinnacle, and the regional prop-shops we trust.
Curtis Mead (WSH): +1000
We picked Mead yesterday, and he rewarded us with the most frustrating words in home run betting: a “near home run,” as tracked by the most frustrating Twitter account in home run betting.
Mead hit a ball 102 MPH to the 389 foot mark, a hit that would have been a homer in 2 of 30 MLB stadiums. Unfortunately, not the one he was playing in yesterday.
Still, the power surge continues, and if he keeps hitting the ball as hard as he has been, this price is still a gift. He has three homers and four barrels in his last four games, and faces a righty today, which is his stronger platoon split (9.7 BANG vs 6.0).
Casey Schmitt (SF): +700
We decried the pitcher-friendliness of Oracle Park yesterday, and the Giants and Diamondbacks together responded by bashing five home runs in one night. Schmitt hit one of them, and he’s on a pretty hefty power surge himself; three homers and four barrels in the last four nights.
His matchup against Michael Soroka isn’t the best; he doesn’t hit righties as hard as lefties, and Soroka also doesn’t give up as hard contact against righties as he does with lefties. But we like riding the hot hand, and at a price of +700, we still see a ton of edge on the price tonight.
Amed Rosario (NYY): +850
Rosario has a ton of factors in his favor tonight, and we can’t quite understand the long odds for the Yankees’ utility man.
He only has 95 plate appearances on the season, which just clears our minimum on the home run model, but in those PAs he has a 10.8 BANG, one of the highest marks in the league. And he’s especially strong against lefties - a BANG of 11.2 and 3 homers in 50 plate appearances. That’s 1 every 12.5, so if using the most rudimentary of math, and assuming he gets four plate appearances, that should be closer to +300 or +350. That’s rarely how it works, but it’s food for thought.
Even better, he has faced the lefty he’s facing tonight (Noah Cameron), and he’s already homered off of him (1 HR in three PAs). He’s playing in a slightly tough park (Kaufman Stadium, 0.90 park factor), but the rest of the profile is good enough to compensate.
At +850, this is a no-brainer.
CJ Abrams (WSH): +650
Another guy we bet yesterday. He did not hit the ball particularly hard last night, but tonight he faces a righty in Gavin Williams, which is his much better platoon split: 8.8 BANG vs. righties compared to 4.8 against lefties.
Model edge of +224 on the YES side tonight (model thinks fair odds are around +421; the +650 you’re seeing at the books is meaningfully overpriced).
Cleared the filter. The numbers say bet it again.
Cam Smith (HOU): +1000
Smith homered yesterday, but it wasn’t his only hard contact; he hit a ball at 104 MPH that traveled 364 feet, a hit that registered 48.9 on the BANG scale. With a slightly better launch angle, he probably would have gone yard twice.
The second-year player is coming around; he has a BANG of 7.0 on the season, but over the last eight games it’s up 22.9% to 8.6. We think this might be the beginning of a hot streak for the Astros slugger.
Jacob DeGrom may still be pitching decently well for his age, but he’s giving up more hard contact than one might expect, with a BANG-against of 9.0.
Ketel Marte (AZ): +575
Marte just clears the +175 gate for best bets with a model edge of +182 on the YES side tonight. Our fair odds are around +393.
Marte also homered yesterday (you may be noticing a trend), and he’s been a free swinger recently; he’s only struck out or walked four times in his last 20 plate appearances. And in that time, he has three barrels and two homers.
The switch-hitter doesn’t hit the ball quite as hard against righties as he does lefties, but his BANG is still very high against that platoon split (9.7 compared to 10.6 against lefties). We like him to leave the yard again, even if he is playing at Oracle Park.
Bryce Harper (PHI): +600
The last of our seven picks is a big name in Bryce Harper, who for some reason is up to +600 at PointsBet. You may not be shocked to hear this, but he too homered yesterday. And, he too faces a platoon advantage, with 10 HRs, a 1.015 OPS and a 10.3 BANG against righties in 144 plate appearances.
Our model gives a +176 edge against the sportsbook price, just barely clearing the number. Bet it.
Tonight’s top BvP matchups to watch
If you’re shopping non-prop bets (team totals, NRFI/YRFI, outright moneylines) or other props that aren’t home runs, the Today’s BvP matchups page ranks every batter-vs-pitcher matchup on tonight’s slate by combined BANG. A few standouts:
- Max Muncy (LAD) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: combined BANG 11.6 (Muncy 10.5, Sugano allowing 12.6).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) vs Jacob deGrom: combined BANG 10.6 (Alvarez 12.2, deGrom allowing 9.0).
- Michael Harris II (ATL) vs Connelly Early: combined BANG 10.5 (Harris 12.7, Early allowing 8.3).
For the full slate with weather, park factor, and the per-game matchup grid, Today’s Slate. For per-pitcher hittability rankings, Today’s Pitchers sorts every starter by BANG-against, easiest to hit at the top.
Batters with multiple home runs against starter today:
As we mentioned, we have a new section on the BvP page that lists batters who have home runs against the starters they are facing today. Here is a list of guys who have multiple homers against their opponent:
vs Jacob deGrom (TEX)
- Jose Altuve (HOU): 3 HR / 16 PA
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU): 2 HR / 6 PA
- Christian Walker (HOU): 2 HR / 21 PA
vs Cristopher Sánchez (PHI)
- Freddy Fermin (SD): 2 HR / 2 PA
vs Tomoyuki Sugano (COL)
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD): 2 HR / 5 PA
vs Jeffrey Springs (ATH)
- Rob Refsnyder (SEA): 2 HR / 10 PA
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA): 2 HR / 14 PA
vs Logan Gilbert (SEA)
- Shea Langeliers (ATH): 2 HR / 23 PA
vs Jameson Taillon (CHC)
- Brandon Lowe (PIT): 2 HR / 17 PA
Bet responsibly. Never more than you can lose. Good luck!