Best ball drafts your team and then gets out of the way. No waivers, no trades, no Sunday-morning agonizing over who to start; every week the scoring engine just takes your best player at each position. That single rule changes what a player is actually worth to you.
Value is E[(X−K)+] × games, which is the payoff of a call option. Because best ball takes a weekly maximum, a player earns only what he adds over the bar K that the rest of your roster already provides at his position, and that bar is measured by simulating an actual roster rather than assumed.
Boom is priced in here, not bolted on afterward. An option payoff is convex in volatility, so two players with identical projected points do not get identical value; the streakier one is worth more, automatically. What the model will not do is guess at streakiness from a player's own history, because that barely persists. Season to season, mean-adjusted variance correlates at just r = +0.115 (receivers are worse, at +0.073), while touchdown share predicts residual variance at +0.324. Past boom-or-bust is close to noise; touchdown dependence is the real signal, and we already project touchdown rates directly.
Projected games come from a durability model fitted on the share of a player's own seasons cut short, how severe those absences were, and how recently they happened. It is fitted at the median rather than the mean, since you are drafting a typical season and not an average of disasters. Out of sample it predicts next-year availability at about r = 0.56.
Now the part worth being upfront about: this board cannot see correlation. A quarterback and his top receiver score together at r = +0.407, which adds roughly 18% to that pair's week-to-week swing, and in a knockout tournament that fat tail is worth more than a few ranking places. Stack on top of this order; do not let it pick your quarterback for you. Bye weeks are invisible here too.
Click a row once to mark a player gone, twice to mark him yours. Your picks drive the roster tracker.
| # | Player | Pos | Value | Pts/G | Games | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| + | 1 | Bijan RobinsonATL | RB | 218.8 | 21.91 | 16.0 |
| + | 2 | Jahmyr GibbsDET | RB | 202.5 | 20.86 | 15.9 |
| + | 3 | Ja'Marr ChaseCIN | WR | 168.1 | 17.49 | 15.1 |
| + | 4 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA | WR | 164.2 | 16.61 | 16.0 |
| + | 5 | CeeDee LambDAL | WR | 154.3 | 17.40 | 13.9 |
| + | 6 | Kenneth Walker IIIKC | RB | 152.5 | 18.50 | 14.5 |
| + | 7 | James CookBUF | RB | 149.6 | 17.26 | 15.8 |
| + | 8 | Amon-Ra St. BrownDET | WR | 148.5 | 15.65 | 15.9 |
| + | 9 | Puka NacuaLA | WR | 147.9 | 16.41 | 14.8 |
| + | 10 | Nico CollinsHOU | WR | 133.7 | 16.15 | 13.5 |
| + | 11 | Derrick HenryBAL | RB | 132.9 | 16.54 | 15.0 |
| + | 12 | Ashton JeantyLV | RB | 130.7 | 17.08 | 14.4 |
| + | 13 | Jonathan TaylorIND | RB | 128.4 | 17.18 | 13.9 |
| + | 14 | Kyren WilliamsLA | RB | 122.3 | 16.53 | 13.9 |
| + | 15 | Chris OlaveNO | WR | 121.3 | 14.97 | 13.9 |
| + | 16 | Chase BrownCIN | RB | 120.7 | 15.75 | 15.1 |
| + | 17 | Tetairoa McMillanCAR | WR | 120.6 | 13.65 | 15.9 |
| + | 18 | Justin JeffersonMIN | WR | 117.5 | 14.06 | 15.1 |
| + | 19 | Drake LondonATL | WR | 112.4 | 13.48 | 15.3 |
| + | 20 | Christian McCaffreySF | RB | 104.4 | 17.21 | 11.4 |
| + | 21 | Trey McBrideARI | TE | 104.2 | 12.78 | 15.2 |
| + | 22 | Brock BowersLV | TE | 102.8 | 13.15 | 14.4 |
| + | 23 | Saquon BarkleyPHI | RB | 99.7 | 14.99 | 13.8 |
| + | 24 | Luther Burden IIICHI | WR | 98.9 | 12.94 | 14.2 |
| + | 25 | Tee HigginsCIN | WR | 97.5 | 13.56 | 13.0 |
| + | 26 | Zay FlowersBAL | WR | 97.2 | 12.12 | 16.0 |
| + | 27 | Josh AllenBUF | QB | 94.4 | 23.72 | 16.0 |
| + | 28 | George PickensDAL | WR | 92.5 | 11.71 | 15.8 |
| + | 29 | Garrett WilsonNYJ | WR | 91.1 | 12.16 | 15.0 |
| + | 30 | Carnell TateTEN | WR | 89.7 | 11.44 | 15.9 |
| + | 31 | De'Von AchaneMIA | RB | 89.5 | 13.78 | 14.8 |
| + | 32 | D'Andre SwiftCHI | RB | 89.1 | 13.89 | 14.2 |
| + | 33 | Rashee RiceKC | WR | 88.7 | 12.50 | 14.0 |
| + | 34 | A.J. BrownNE | WR | 88.2 | 12.19 | 14.4 |
| + | 35 | DeVonta SmithPHI | WR | 87.2 | 11.38 | 15.9 |
| + | 36 | Malik NabersNYG | WR | 84.3 | 12.72 | 12.6 |
| + | 37 | Ladd McConkeyLAC | WR | 84.2 | 11.40 | 15.6 |
| + | 38 | Jaylen WaddleDEN | WR | 83.2 | 11.33 | 15.5 |
| + | 39 | D.K. MetcalfPIT | WR | 81.9 | 11.53 | 14.7 |
| + | 40 | Travis EtienneNO | RB | 81.5 | 12.42 | 16.0 |
| + | 41 | Omarion HamptonLAC | RB | 80.8 | 13.17 | 14.5 |
| + | 42 | Javonte WilliamsDAL | RB | 78.5 | 13.09 | 14.0 |
| + | 43 | Emeka EgbukaTB | WR | 77.5 | 11.62 | 13.8 |
| + | 44 | Michael WilsonARI | WR | 77.4 | 10.40 | 15.3 |
| + | 45 | Jeremiyah LoveARI | RB | 76.9 | 12.45 | 14.9 |
| + | 46 | Davante AdamsLA | WR | 76.4 | 12.43 | 11.7 |
| + | 47 | Parker WashingtonJAX | WR | 75.9 | 10.92 | 14.4 |
| + | 48 | Bucky IrvingTB | RB | 74.9 | 12.87 | 13.8 |
| + | 49 | Jameson WilliamsDET | WR | 73.5 | 10.51 | 14.9 |
| + | 50 | Jaylen WarrenPIT | RB | 72.7 | 11.84 | 15.6 |
| + | 51 | Tyler WarrenIND | TE | 72.5 | 10.13 | 15.9 |
| + | 52 | Mike EvansSF | WR | 71.3 | 11.55 | 12.6 |
| + | 53 | Christian WatsonGB | WR | 70.5 | 10.92 | 13.2 |
| + | 54 | DJ MooreBUF | WR | 69.6 | 10.06 | 15.8 |
| + | 55 | Bhayshul TutenJAX | RB | 68.8 | 11.90 | 14.2 |
| + | 56 | Colston LovelandCHI | TE | 68.6 | 10.01 | 15.3 |
| + | 57 | Rhamondre StevensonNE | RB | 67.8 | 11.70 | 14.2 |
| + | 58 | Lamar JacksonBAL | QB | 67.8 | 22.02 | 14.6 |
| + | 59 | Isaiah LikelyNYG | TE | 67.7 | 10.00 | 14.0 |
| + | 60 | Breece HallNYJ | RB | 66.7 | 12.18 | 14.1 |
| + | 61 | Cam SkatteboNYG | RB | 66.3 | 12.31 | 13.5 |
| + | 62 | Drake MayeNE | QB | 66.1 | 21.65 | 15.5 |
| + | 63 | Jared GoffDET | QB | 65.6 | 20.08 | 16.0 |
| + | 64 | Dak PrescottDAL | QB | 64.6 | 20.43 | 15.3 |
| + | 65 | RJ HarveyDEN | RB | 64.4 | 10.85 | 15.9 |
| + | 66 | Joe BurrowCIN | QB | 64.1 | 21.11 | 14.0 |
| + | 67 | Travis KelceKC | TE | 62.3 | 9.47 | 15.7 |
| + | 68 | David MontgomeryHOU | RB | 62.0 | 11.51 | 14.5 |
| + | 69 | Dalton KincaidBUF | TE | 61.6 | 9.70 | 14.1 |
| + | 70 | Quinshon JudkinsCLE | RB | 61.5 | 11.58 | 13.6 |
| + | 71 | Khalil ShakirBUF | WR | 61.0 | 9.26 | 15.6 |
| + | 72 | Rome OdunzeCHI | WR | 60.8 | 10.79 | 12.0 |
| + | 73 | Tony PollardTEN | RB | 60.4 | 10.72 | 15.3 |
| + | 74 | Terry McLaurinWAS | WR | 60.4 | 10.36 | 13.4 |
| + | 75 | Mark AndrewsBAL | TE | 58.1 | 8.99 | 14.9 |
| + | 76 | Caleb WilliamsCHI | QB | 57.9 | 20.21 | 15.5 |
| + | 77 | Jalen HurtsPHI | QB | 55.6 | 19.45 | 15.8 |
| + | 78 | Deebo SamuelSF | WR | 54.4 | 9.45 | 13.8 |
| + | 79 | Brock PurdySF | QB | 53.0 | 20.55 | 12.5 |
| + | 80 | Romeo DoubsNE | WR | 52.9 | 8.85 | 15.0 |
| + | 81 | Matthew StaffordLA | QB | 52.7 | 18.15 | 16.0 |
| + | 82 | Xavier WorthyKC | WR | 51.3 | 8.64 | 15.2 |
| + | 83 | Devaughn VeleNO | WR | 51.1 | 8.29 | 17.0 |
| + | 84 | Dalton SchultzHOU | TE | 49.8 | 8.41 | 14.5 |
| + | 85 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS | RB | 49.7 | 9.35 | 15.9 |
| + | 86 | Jadarian PriceSEA | RB | 49.7 | 9.77 | 15.9 |
| + | 87 | Jordan AddisonMIN | WR | 49.4 | 8.49 | 15.2 |
| + | 88 | Justin HerbertLAC | QB | 49.4 | 18.99 | 16.0 |
| + | 89 | Harold Fannin Jr.CLE | TE | 49.1 | 8.15 | 15.9 |
| + | 90 | George KittleSF | TE | 48.4 | 9.59 | 11.5 |
| + | 91 | Tucker KraftGB | TE | 48.2 | 8.20 | 14.4 |
| + | 92 | Alec PierceIND | WR | 48.1 | 8.52 | 14.0 |
| + | 93 | Juwan JohnsonNO | TE | 47.9 | 8.62 | 13.3 |
| + | 94 | Stefon DiggsWAS | WR | 47.3 | 8.76 | 14.5 |
| + | 95 | Quentin JohnstonLAC | WR | 47.3 | 8.18 | 15.2 |
| + | 96 | Baker MayfieldTB | QB | 47.1 | 18.16 | 16.0 |
| + | 97 | Jalon DanielsTB | QB | 47.1 | 17.25 | 15.0 |
| + | 98 | Courtland SuttonDEN | WR | 46.7 | 8.65 | 14.3 |
| + | 99 | Jayden DanielsWAS | QB | 46.4 | 20.01 | 13.2 |
| + | 100 | Chuba HubbardCAR | RB | 46.2 | 10.55 | 11.5 |
| + | 101 | Tyler ShoughNO | QB | 46.0 | 18.92 | 13.5 |
| + | 102 | TreVeyon HendersonNE | RB | 45.8 | 9.32 | 15.9 |
| + | 103 | Jayden ReedGB | WR | 44.9 | 9.37 | 11.5 |
| + | 104 | Brian Thomas Jr.JAX | WR | 44.1 | 8.38 | 14.9 |
| + | 105 | Sam LaPortaDET | TE | 44.1 | 8.87 | 12.4 |
| + | 106 | Jaxson DartNYG | QB | 43.7 | 18.99 | 14.5 |
| + | 107 | Josh JacobsGB | RB | 43.1 | 13.06 | 7.8 |
| + | 108 | Denzel BostonCLE | WR | 42.7 | 7.62 | 15.9 |
| + | 109 | Jordan LoveGB | QB | 42.5 | 17.99 | 15.1 |
| + | 110 | Kyle MonangaiCHI | RB | 42.4 | 9.14 | 14.5 |
| + | 111 | Tre TuckerLV | WR | 42.0 | 7.40 | 15.3 |
| + | 112 | C.J. StroudHOU | QB | 42.0 | 17.62 | 15.3 |
| + | 113 | Trevor LawrenceJAX | QB | 41.8 | 17.88 | 15.5 |
| + | 114 | Dallas GoedertPHI | TE | 41.7 | 8.07 | 13.6 |
| + | 115 | Chris GodwinTB | WR | 41.7 | 9.04 | 11.6 |
| + | 116 | Jalen CokerCAR | WR | 41.4 | 8.68 | 11.9 |
| + | 117 | Marcus MariotaWAS | QB | 41.1 | 16.49 | 15.0 |
| + | 118 | Matthew GoldenGB | WR | 40.5 | 7.92 | 13.6 |
| + | 119 | Patrick MahomesKC | QB | 40.0 | 18.11 | 14.5 |
| + | 120 | Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI | WR | 39.8 | 8.08 | 14.6 |
| + | 121 | Pat FreiermuthPIT | TE | 39.0 | 7.49 | 14.7 |
| + | 122 | Bo NixDEN | QB | 39.0 | 17.63 | 15.5 |
| + | 123 | Aaron RodgersPIT | QB | 38.7 | 16.38 | 15.8 |
| + | 124 | MarShawn LloydGB | RB | 38.3 | 10.25 | 9.0 |
| + | 125 | Blake CorumLA | RB | 37.9 | 7.93 | 15.0 |
| + | 126 | KC ConcepcionCLE | WR | 37.8 | 7.10 | 15.9 |
| + | 127 | Brenton StrangeJAX | TE | 37.7 | 7.58 | 13.1 |
| + | 128 | Tyson BagentCHI | QB | 37.5 | 16.01 | 15.0 |
| + | 129 | Kyler MurrayMIN | QB | 37.2 | 19.05 | 12.5 |
| + | 130 | Jakobi MeyersJAX | WR | 37.2 | 8.03 | 13.8 |
| + | 131 | Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN | WR | 37.1 | 7.81 | 13.7 |
| + | 132 | Josh DownsIND | WR | 37.0 | 7.64 | 14.4 |
| + | 133 | Michael Pittman Jr.PIT | WR | 36.6 | 7.61 | 15.1 |
| + | 134 | Rachaad WhiteWAS | RB | 36.1 | 8.60 | 15.0 |
| + | 135 | De'Zhaun StriblingSF | WR | 35.8 | 7.11 | 15.9 |
| + | 136 | Rico DowdlePIT | RB | 35.4 | 9.14 | 12.3 |
| + | 137 | T.J. HockensonMIN | TE | 35.1 | 7.56 | 13.1 |
| + | 138 | Bryce YoungCAR | QB | 34.9 | 16.00 | 14.6 |
| + | 139 | Cade OttonTB | TE | 34.8 | 6.54 | 15.3 |
| + | 140 | Carson WentzMIN | QB | 34.4 | 15.59 | 15.0 |
| + | 141 | Kayshon BoutteHOU | WR | 34.3 | 6.90 | 14.0 |
| + | 142 | Hunter HenryNE | TE | 34.0 | 7.44 | 13.4 |
| + | 143 | Tyler AllgeierARI | RB | 33.3 | 7.77 | 16.0 |
| + | 144 | Jameis WinstonNYG | QB | 33.1 | 15.11 | 16.0 |
| + | 145 | AJ BarnerSEA | TE | 32.3 | 6.62 | 15.0 |
| + | 146 | Jake FergusonDAL | TE | 32.3 | 6.88 | 14.6 |
| + | 147 | Malik WashingtonMIA | WR | 31.5 | 6.49 | 15.9 |
| + | 148 | Aaron JonesMIN | RB | 31.4 | 8.65 | 13.1 |
| + | 149 | Kyle PittsATL | TE | 31.0 | 6.59 | 15.2 |
| + | 150 | Tre' HarrisLAC | WR | 30.4 | 5.97 | 15.9 |
| + | 151 | Keenan AllenIND | WR | 30.3 | 7.29 | 13.6 |
| + | 152 | Cam WardTEN | QB | 30.1 | 15.48 | 15.5 |
| + | 153 | Deshaun WatsonCLE | QB | 28.8 | 14.27 | 17.0 |
| + | 154 | Jack BechLV | WR | 27.9 | 5.92 | 15.9 |
| + | 155 | Jordan MasonMIN | RB | 27.3 | 7.15 | 13.8 |
| + | 156 | Michael Penix Jr.ATL | QB | 25.7 | 14.31 | 15.0 |
| + | 157 | Kalif RaymondCHI | WR | 25.3 | 6.18 | 17.0 |
| + | 158 | Malik WillisMIA | QB | 24.7 | 16.46 | 13.0 |
| + | 159 | Dontayvion WicksPHI | WR | 24.7 | 5.33 | 15.2 |
| + | 160 | Chigoziem OkonkwoWAS | TE | 24.2 | 5.75 | 16.0 |
| + | 161 | Gunnar HelmTEN | TE | 23.8 | 5.56 | 15.9 |
| + | 162 | Malachi FieldsNYG | WR | 23.8 | 5.25 | 15.9 |
| + | 163 | Kenny GainwellTB | RB | 23.6 | 6.21 | 16.0 |
| + | 164 | Sam DarnoldSEA | QB | 23.5 | 15.06 | 14.3 |
| + | 165 | Daniel JonesIND | QB | 23.4 | 15.21 | 13.0 |
| + | 166 | Jonathan BrooksCAR | RB | 23.2 | 9.80 | 8.0 |
| + | 167 | Mike GesickiCIN | TE | 23.2 | 5.71 | 13.5 |
| + | 168 | Keaton MitchellLAC | RB | 22.5 | 7.00 | 13.5 |
| + | 169 | Ryan FlournoyDAL | WR | 22.2 | 5.17 | 14.2 |
| + | 170 | Caleb DouglasMIA | WR | 21.7 | 5.38 | 15.9 |
| + | 171 | Kirk CousinsLV | QB | 21.6 | 13.18 | 17.0 |
| + | 172 | Makai LemonPHI | WR | 21.2 | 5.61 | 14.9 |
| + | 173 | Tyler HuntleyBAL | QB | 20.5 | 14.08 | 12.6 |
| + | 174 | Brian RobinsonATL | RB | 20.5 | 6.41 | 14.7 |
| + | 175 | Jacoby BrissettARI | QB | 20.4 | 14.81 | 13.0 |
| + | 176 | Ollie Gordon IIMIA | RB | 20.2 | 6.85 | 16.0 |
| + | 177 | J.K. DobbinsDEN | RB | 19.7 | 9.41 | 6.8 |
| + | 178 | Jalen NailorLV | WR | 19.4 | 5.07 | 15.0 |
| + | 179 | Colby ParkinsonLA | TE | 19.2 | 5.29 | 12.3 |
| + | 180 | Adonai MitchellNYJ | WR | 19.1 | 4.94 | 15.2 |
| + | 181 | Geno SmithNYJ | QB | 18.9 | 14.41 | 13.4 |
| + | 182 | Jordyn TysonNO | WR | 18.6 | 7.21 | 8.2 |
| + | 183 | Rashid ShaheedSEA | WR | 18.4 | 5.61 | 12.7 |
| + | 184 | Rashod BatemanBAL | WR | 17.9 | 5.96 | 10.1 |
| + | 185 | Tyjae SpearsTEN | RB | 17.2 | 6.47 | 14.4 |
| + | 186 | Braelon AllenNYJ | RB | 17.2 | 6.67 | 10.7 |
| + | 187 | Darnell MooneyNYG | WR | 16.4 | 5.17 | 13.9 |
| + | 188 | Demario DouglasNE | WR | 16.0 | 5.26 | 17.0 |
| + | 189 | Cooper KuppSEA | WR | 15.7 | 5.42 | 13.7 |
| + | 190 | Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ | WR | 15.5 | 4.77 | 15.9 |
| + | 191 | Woody MarksHOU | RB | 14.5 | 5.65 | 15.3 |
| + | 192 | Tank BigsbyPHI | RB | 14.1 | 4.81 | 14.6 |
| + | 193 | Oronde Gadsden IILAC | TE | 13.8 | 4.84 | 14.2 |
| + | 194 | Dylan SampsonCLE | RB | 12.2 | 5.36 | 14.2 |
| + | 195 | Jalen McMillanTB | WR | 11.8 | 5.15 | 9.2 |
| + | 196 | Ja'Kobi LaneBAL | WR | 11.8 | 3.97 | 15.9 |
| + | 197 | Isaac TeSlaaDET | WR | 11.5 | 3.48 | 15.9 |
| + | 198 | Germie BernardPIT | WR | 11.2 | 3.82 | 15.9 |
| + | 199 | Alvin KamaraNO | RB | 11.2 | 6.30 | 10.5 |
| + | 200 | Zachariah BranchATL | WR | 10.9 | 4.01 | 15.9 |
| + | 201 | Isiah PachecoDET | RB | 10.8 | 5.76 | 11.5 |
| + | 202 | Zach CharbonnetSEA | RB | 10.6 | 5.80 | 9.0 |
| + | 203 | George HolaniSEA | RB | 10.4 | 4.44 | 15.9 |
| + | 204 | Xavier LegetteCAR | WR | 9.6 | 3.82 | 14.2 |
| + | 205 | Mason TaylorNYJ | TE | 9.3 | 4.47 | 10.7 |
| + | 206 | Case KeenumCHI | QB | 9.2 | 13.07 | 7.5 |
| + | 207 | Evan EngramDEN | TE | 9.1 | 4.31 | 13.8 |
| + | 208 | Terrance FergusonLA | TE | 8.7 | 3.68 | 12.4 |
| + | 209 | Kenyon SadiqNYJ | TE | 8.5 | 3.53 | 15.9 |
| + | 210 | Mack HollinsNE | WR | 8.5 | 4.34 | 17.0 |
| + | 211 | Greg DulcichMIA | TE | 7.7 | 5.46 | 5.8 |
| + | 212 | Calvin RidleyTEN | WR | 7.4 | 4.88 | 8.2 |
| + | 213 | Emmett JohnsonKC | RB | 7.1 | 3.71 | 15.9 |
| + | 214 | Ray DavisBUF | RB | 7.0 | 4.10 | 15.9 |
| + | 215 | Jerry JeudyCLE | WR | 6.5 | 4.10 | 16.0 |
| + | 216 | Kendrick BourneARI | WR | 6.5 | 4.10 | 16.0 |
| + | 217 | Sean TuckerTB | RB | 6.5 | 3.71 | 11.1 |
| + | 218 | Jaylen WrightMIA | RB | 6.2 | 4.86 | 16.0 |
| + | 219 | Jaylin NoelHOU | WR | 5.8 | 2.91 | 15.9 |
| + | 220 | Antonio WilliamsWAS | WR | 5.7 | 3.90 | 17.0 |
| + | 221 | Tank DellHOU | WR | 5.1 | 3.94 | 7.5 |
| + | 222 | Emanuel WilsonSEA | RB | 4.6 | 4.44 | 17.0 |
| + | 223 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX | RB | 4.5 | 4.19 | 10.1 |
| + | 224 | Tua TagovailoaATL | QB | 4.4 | 15.43 | 2.0 |
| + | 225 | Najee HarrisNYG | RB | 4.0 | 3.87 | 12.6 |
| + | 226 | Kaelon BlackSF | RB | 4.0 | 4.31 | 17.0 |
| + | 227 | Cyrus AllenKC | WR | 2.5 | 2.44 | 15.9 |
| + | 228 | Samaje PerineCIN | RB | 2.3 | 3.83 | 17.0 |
| + | 229 | Roman WilsonPIT | WR | 2.1 | 3.10 | 17.0 |
| + | 230 | Dyami BrownWAS | WR | 2.1 | 3.10 | 17.0 |
| + | 231 | Keon ColemanBUF | WR | 2.1 | 3.09 | 17.0 |
| + | 232 | David NjokuLAC | TE | 1.8 | 3.21 | 11.0 |
| + | 233 | Tyquan ThorntonKC | WR | 1.6 | 2.90 | 17.0 |
| + | 234 | Tutu AtwellLA | WR | 1.2 | 2.20 | 12.2 |
| + | 235 | Darren WallerCAR | TE | 1.1 | 2.63 | 17.0 |
| + | 236 | Dohnte MeyersCIN | WR | 0.8 | 2.58 | 17.0 |
| + | 237 | Travis HunterJAX | WR | 0.6 | 1.46 | 15.9 |
| + | 238 | Tyrone TracyNYG | RB | 0.5 | 1.82 | 15.9 |
| + | 239 | Noah FantNO | TE | 0.5 | 2.39 | 15.0 |
| + | 240 | Ted HurstTB | WR | 0.3 | 2.22 | 17.0 |
| + | 241 | Pat BryantDEN | WR | 0.3 | 2.21 | 16.0 |
| + | 242 | Isaiah WilliamsNYJ | WR | 0.3 | 2.23 | 17.0 |
| + | 243 | Brycen TremayneCAR | WR | 0.2 | 1.98 | 17.0 |
| + | 244 | Mike Washington Jr.LV | RB | 0.2 | 2.52 | 17.0 |
| + | 245 | Tommy TrembleCAR | TE | 0.2 | 1.95 | 17.0 |
| + | 246 | Jahan DotsonATL | WR | 0.2 | 2.07 | 17.0 |
| + | 247 | Tyler HigbeeLA | TE | 0.2 | 1.94 | 16.0 |
| + | 248 | Elic AyomanorTEN | WR | 0.1 | 1.73 | 17.0 |
| + | 249 | John Metchie IIICAR | WR | 0.1 | 1.93 | 16.0 |
| + | 250 | Laquon TreadwellIND | WR | 0.1 | 1.96 | 17.0 |
| + | 251 | Mitchell TinsleyCIN | WR | 0.1 | 1.88 | 12.9 |
| + | 252 | Xavier HutchinsonHOU | WR | 0.1 | 1.89 | 17.0 |
| + | 253 | Darius CooperPHI | WR | 0.0 | 0.97 | 17.0 |
| + | 254 | Ronnie RiversLA | RB | 0.0 | 0.74 | 12.5 |
| + | 255 | Austin EkelerWAS | RB | 0.0 | 0.83 | 12.9 |
| + | 256 | Kimani VidalLAC | RB | 0.0 | 1.26 | 16.0 |
| + | 257 | Corey KinerNE | RB | 0.0 | 1.14 | 17.0 |
| + | 258 | Jordan JamesSF | RB | 0.0 | 0.48 | 12.5 |
| + | 259 | Roschon JohnsonCHI | RB | 0.0 | 0.73 | 15.0 |
| + | 260 | AJ DillonCAR | RB | 0.0 | 1.26 | 17.0 |
| + | 261 | Tyler BadieDEN | RB | 0.0 | 1.36 | 16.0 |
| + | 262 | Konata MumpfieldLA | WR | 0.0 | 1.25 | 17.0 |
| + | 263 | Ty JohnsonBUF | RB | 0.0 | 1.33 | 15.0 |
| + | 264 | Chris BellMIA | WR | 0.0 | 1.35 | 17.0 |
| + | 265 | Sione VakiDET | RB | 0.0 | 1.31 | 17.0 |
| + | 266 | Drew SampleCIN | TE | 0.0 | 0.99 | 15.0 |
| + | 267 | Emari DemercadoKC | RB | 0.0 | 0.00 | 12.4 |
| + | 268 | Devin SingletaryNYG | RB | 0.0 | 0.82 | 15.0 |
| + | 269 | CJ DonaldsonNO | RB | 0.0 | 0.66 | 17.0 |
| + | 270 | Demarcus RobinsonSF | WR | 0.0 | 0.05 | 14.0 |
| + | 271 | DJ HermanMIA | RB | 0.0 | 0.47 | 15.0 |
| + | 272 | Zach ErtzPHI | TE | 0.0 | 0.54 | 15.0 |
| + | 273 | Marvin Mims Jr.DEN | WR | 0.0 | 0.85 | 15.0 |
| + | 274 | Elijah HigginsARI | TE | 0.0 | 0.68 | 16.0 |
| + | 275 | Tez JohnsonTB | WR | 0.0 | 1.01 | 17.0 |
| + | 276 | Cody WhiteLV | WR | 0.0 | 0.72 | 17.0 |
| + | 277 | Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA | WR | 0.0 | 1.06 | 16.0 |
| + | 278 | Nicholas SingletonTEN | RB | 0.0 | 0.63 | 15.0 |
| + | 279 | Kaytron AllenWAS | RB | 0.0 | 0.90 | 16.0 |
| + | 280 | Seth McGowanIND | RB | 0.0 | 1.16 | 17.0 |
| + | 281 | Alec IngoldLAC | RB | 0.0 | 0.62 | 16.0 |
| + | 282 | Chris BlairATL | WR | 0.0 | 0.84 | 17.0 |
| + | 283 | Bryce LanceNO | WR | 0.0 | 0.76 | 17.0 |
| + | 284 | Erick AllCIN | TE | 0.0 | 0.74 | 12.5 |
| + | 285 | Darnell WashingtonPIT | TE | 0.0 | 1.19 | 17.0 |
| + | 286 | Jared WayneHOU | WR | 0.0 | 1.30 | 16.0 |
| + | 287 | Josh OliverMIN | TE | 0.0 | 1.11 | 16.0 |
| + | 288 | Kendre MillerNO | RB | 0.0 | 1.73 | 16.0 |
| + | 289 | Nate AdkinsDEN | TE | 0.0 | 1.16 | 16.0 |
| + | 290 | Raheim SandersCLE | RB | 0.0 | 1.95 | 17.0 |
| + | 291 | Jonah ColemanDEN | RB | 0.0 | 1.94 | 15.0 |
| + | 292 | Justice HillBAL | RB | 0.0 | 1.75 | 17.0 |
| + | 293 | Jeremy RuckertNYJ | TE | 0.0 | 1.45 | 16.0 |
| + | 294 | Josh PalmerBUF | WR | 0.0 | 1.72 | 16.0 |
| + | 295 | Tyler GoodsonDAL | RB | 0.0 | 1.20 | 15.0 |
| + | 296 | Will ShipleyPHI | RB | 0.0 | 1.29 | 17.0 |
| + | 297 | Ameer AbdullahJAX | RB | 0.0 | 1.23 | 17.0 |
| + | 298 | Skyy MooreGB | WR | 0.0 | 1.63 | 17.0 |
| + | 299 | Ashton DulinIND | WR | 0.0 | 1.53 | 15.0 |
You draft a roster, usually 18 players on Underdog and 20 on DraftKings, and then you are finished. Nothing to set, nothing to manage. Each week the site scores your highest-scoring quarterback, your two best backs, your three best receivers, a tight end and a flex, and that total is what you get.
The consequence sneaks up on people. A player who busts in Week 4 costs you nothing at all if someone else on your bench went off; equally, a monster week from your fourth receiver is worth very little when three teammates also went off and only one of them can fill the slot. Everything is relative to what your own roster already gave you.
Which is why the format rewards a different player than a season-long league does. There you need a startable floor, because nine slots have to be filled whether you like the matchup or not. Here you never set a lineup, so floor is worth much less and spikes are worth much more.
Yes, and full PPR at that: a point per reception, plus three-point bonuses for a 100-yard rushing game, a 100-yard receiving game or a 300-yard passing game. Underdog runs half PPR with no yardage bonuses. Sleeper's default best ball scoring matches Underdog, so switching between those two here shows you the same board rather than a fake distinction.
The gap is wider than the rulebook makes it sound. Flip this board to DraftKings and the receiving tight ends climb about 30 places; George Kittle moves from 86th to 58th, Travis Kelce and Jake Ferguson move nearly as far. Backs who do not catch passes drop by a similar amount, which is how Quinshon Judkins and Bucky Irving each shed roughly 30 spots. Same players, same projections, different scoring.
The 2024 Best Ball Mania results are blunt about the early rounds: through round six, starting three running backs was the best-performing shape at roughly 1,602 points against a 1,541 baseline, while zero-RB builds came in near 1,489. If you take one thing from this, take that.
By round 10 you want four or five backs, a similar number of receivers, and your first quarterback should be in. Tight end is where most drafters get it backwards. Going in early graded badly (a round-two tight end landed near 1,480), yet finishing with three or four of them beat one-TE rosters by about 25 points. Cheap and plural beats expensive and singular.
Rather than memorize any of that, click your picks in the table above. The tracker paces those benchmarks against the pick you are actually on and tells you which position you are drifting away from.
Mostly yes, and that genuinely surprised me. You would expect a 500,000-entry tournament to want far more volatility than a 12-team home league, and the math backs the intuition: to win a field that size you should give up about 4.5 points of expected roster total for one point of roster standard deviation. In a 12-team league that number is 1.2. In any format where half the field cashes it is zero, and past that point extra variance actively costs you money.
So why is the tournament board almost the same board? Because applying that premium barely reorders anything. Rebuilt with the full tournament weighting it still correlates with the points-max version at 0.998, and not one name in the top 24 moves. Push the premium to a deliberately absurd level, several times anything defensible, and two names move. The players who add expected points turn out to be the same players who add variance, so contest strategy is not really something draft order can express.
Where it does surface is at quarterback. Those move up around ten spots under the tournament lens, because their weekly swings are the biggest in absolute terms and absolute swing is what moves a roster total. The contest toggle applies exactly that, and nothing it does is dramatic.
The levers that actually matter in a big field are not on this page. Stacking a quarterback with his own receiver correlates at +0.407 and adds roughly 18% to that pair's weekly swing; roster shape matters more than any single pick; and being different from the field is worth more the larger the field gets. Those decisions will do far more for you than agonizing over the 40th player against the 45th.