Teams playing this week sorted by their implied point total, an average of the sportsbooks' lines.
Heat sits alongside it, rating the game environment for fantasy points and volume stats. It takes into account the opposing team's total, both teams' pace of play and how close the game is projected to be. Higher heat = more likely to be a shootout; you want players from those games in your fantasy or DFS lineup.
It is the number of points a sportsbook expects one team to score. Take the game total, subtract the spread, and halve it. A 48-point game with a 4-point favorite implies 26 for the favorite and 22 for the underdog.
Usually it is pace. A team can be expected to score plenty and still run a slow, short game, and points scored over fewer snaps means fewer catches and carries to go around. The two numbers agree most of the time. Where they disagree, it is volume of plays: a team is either playing faster or slower than its total suggests, or it is such a big favorite that there is a real chance it stops trying in the fourth quarter.
From four things: the points each team is expected to score, neutral-situation pace for both offenses, the combined game total, and how close the spread is projected to be. How much each one counts was measured on 2,716 team-games since 2021 rather than chosen. Higher heat means a game more likely to turn into a shootout.
Four things go into heat: the points each team is expected to score, pace for both offenses, the combined game total, and how close the spread is. How much each one counts was measured across 2,716 team-games since 2021, not chosen.
Pace is measured in neutral situations rather than raw plays per game. Raw pace is contaminated by game script: a team that trails all season runs more plays and looks fast without being fast.
Closeness matters because close games keep both offenses throwing into the fourth quarter. Once a team is up three scores it starts running the ball to end the game, and the losing side abandons its run game entirely, which is great for one garbage-time receiver and bad for everyone else.
Use both, not one. The implied total is the better number when you only need a player to score, say a touchdown-dependent back or a red-zone tight end. Take the team expected to put up points and don't overthink the shape of the game. Heat earns its keep when you need volume: a receiver who needs targets, or a quarterback who needs to keep throwing in the fourth quarter. Neither number is trying to beat the other.