Every skill-position player's Week 1, with a floor and a ceiling either side of the projection. Click any row for the game environment underneath the number.
The bands are the part worth reading. They are measured, not guessed — taken from the real distribution of 28,450 player-weeks around their own expectation. That is why a receiver's tenth percentile is a sixth of his projection while a quarterback's is a third: quarterbacks are a far safer weekly bet than the position rankings alone suggest, and that spread is the whole reason start/sit is hard.
Each projection starts from a per-game rate and is adjusted twice. First for the game environment: passing volume scales with the game total and rushing volume with the spread, both fitted within team-season across 7,051 team-games so the adjustment measures game script rather than team quality. A seven-point favourite runs about 3% more; the total moves passing far more than the spread does.
Second for the opponent. Catch rate and yards per catch are blended between what the player has done and what the defence allows to his position, weighted by sample size — a player with 100 prior targets is trusted more than one with 25.
An honest note on that second adjustment. We measured how much the opponent actually moves a projection here: about 0.11 points on average, roughly 1.4%, and 3.4% at the ninetieth percentile. Those weights are the ones that minimise error, so this is not a shortcoming to be tuned away — it is what the data says. A player's own role and the game environment dominate a weekly outcome; the matchup is small beside them. The defensive numbers are shown in full anyway, because a person deciding between two close options should see them even where the model barely moves.
Early in the season the model leans on last year deliberately. Usage corrects fastest — by Week 3 half the weight sits on what a player is actually being asked to do — while efficiency and defensive rates move much more slowly, because one game of a catch rate is mostly noise.
The market is in the number. Every stat with a posted prop line is blended toward the de-vigged line at 50%, one stat at a time — a player with a touchdown price but no rushing line gets a market-informed touchdown and a pure-model rushing number. A missing line never counts as a zero. Two corrections matter more than they sound: a posted line is a median while a projection is a mean, and anytime-touchdown prices carry about 23% margin even at the best price available, because there is no "no" side to price against.
Still to come: snap and usage trend from Week 2.
| Rk | Player | Pos | Opp | Proj | Floor | Ceil |
|---|