What wind and rain actually do to an NFL offense
Fourteen seasons of NFL games measured for wind and rain. Completion rate falls 4.2% at 16-19mph, and a steady rain costs a passer more accuracy than wind does.
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Original studies built on nflverse play-by-play data through
nfl_data_py, published with the sample size, the method, and the point
where the data runs out.
Fourteen seasons of NFL games measured for wind and rain. Completion rate falls 4.2% at 16-19mph, and a steady rain costs a passer more accuracy than wind does.
Read the study →HeatRadar NFL research is original analysis of NFL play-by-play data, published with full methods and sample sizes. The studies cover 14 seasons of NFL historical data, 2012 through 2025, and measure how conditions and usage change what an offense actually produces. The current corpus runs to 4,021 outdoor team-games of weather, plus injury and route-level usage data from the 2026 season.
Three things separate it from most NFL statistics writing. Every team is compared against its own baseline rather than pooled with other teams, so the result is not just a record of which teams happen to play in cold cities. Every figure carries a confidence range, so a reader can see which numbers are solid and which are not. And where a sample is too small to answer the question, the study says so in the text instead of quoting a number anyway.
Studies are free to read, free to cite, and the underlying data is available on request.