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NFL DFS Optimizer

Week 5 DraftKings and FanDuel lineups, built from the live slate salaries and our own weekly projections. 11 games on the main slate. Updated 2026-10-11 12:18 UTC.

Week 5 NFL DFS projections

Every player on the slate we hold a projection for, scored under the site you have selected. Value is points per thousand of salary. Chalk is where that value sits among everyone at the same position, so a high number is a player the field will find. Leverage is ceiling against chalk. Lock a player to force him into the lineup, or exclude him to keep him out.

PlayerPosGame SalaryProjValue ChalkLeverage
Build a lineup for DraftKings or FanDuel

Cash game or tournament

What changes between the two modes

A cash game pays roughly the top half of the field, so the only thing that matters is clearing the line. The cash build maximizes projected points and leans away from players the model gives a high bust rate, and it ignores ownership entirely, because being on the same players as everyone else costs you nothing when you are only trying to beat a number.

A tournament pays the top few percent. Projected points alone will not get you there, since the lineup that maximizes them is roughly the lineup thousands of other people will submit. The tournament build weights the model's boom rate and applies a penalty to chalk, which pushes it toward players with a real ceiling that the field is underpricing.

Leverage and ownership

Why there is no ownership percentage on this page

A genuine ownership projection is fit against historical contest results, and we do not hold any yet. Collecting them takes a season. Publishing a number that looks like a measured ownership percentage when it is a guess dressed up would be the worst version of this.

What is here instead is a chalk score: a player's value percentile among everyone at his position on this slate. Value is by a distance the largest driver of how often the field rosters somebody, so the ordering is broadly right even though the scale is not a percentage of anything. Leverage subtracts that chalk score from the player's boom percentile, which surfaces the players with a ceiling the field is not paying for.

How the projections are built

Where the numbers come from

Salaries come from the live DraftKings slate. Projections come from the same weekly model behind the rest of this section, which blends per-game usage against a shrunk prior, adjusts for the opponent, and folds in the posted betting market where the books have priced a player.

The two sites are scored separately rather than one number being relabelled. DraftKings is full PPR and pays a three point bonus at 100 rushing or receiving yards and at 300 passing. FanDuel is half PPR with no bonuses. On a busy receiver that gap is worth about three points, which is more than enough to reorder a lineup. Defenses are projected more crudely than the skill positions: points allowed comes straight from the opponent's implied total, which the market prices well, while sacks and turnovers are set at league rates rather than modelled.